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mslk

Monthly Option Trade Log

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i'm newbie when it comes to active\day\swing\trend-trading but i've been trading options (primarily for income) for a little bit. i'm starting this thread to share some of my option trades and to record how i'm doing on them. hopefully this will help me cover the cost of learning how to day-trade! :haha:

 

most of my trades are *selling* put options on big safe companies with dividends, with the intent the option expires worthless and i collect the premium. if it doesn't expire then i get to buy the stock at a discount.

 

Disclaimer: i am not an investment professional and this is NOT investment advice!

 

first trade abbott labs (ABT)

- sell, to open, abbott labs (ABT) august $50 puts for at least $0.9.

- if options expire worthless, i get 9% return on my 20% margin requirement for 2 months work

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $50, and taking into account the $0.9 premium, i'm buying the stock at 4.7% discount

- ABT pays a 3.7% dividend, has a strong balance sheet, and is a large diversified health care company just ready for the onslaught of baby-boomers

 

-mslk

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...

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $50, and taking into account the $0.9 premium, i'm buying the stock at 4.7% discount...

 

Unless the stock declines to $45, and it is put to you at $50 - then you will be paying an 9.1% premium, and that doesn't take into account commissions and fees.

 

Its a matter of perspective.

 

Good luck with your trading.

 

-optiontimer

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- if options expire worthless, i get 9% return on my 20% margin requirement for 2 months work

 

adding to optiontimers IMHO perfect analysis is that, you will get a

 

90 cents/5000 cents = 1.8% return for 2 months (still not too bad)

 

This is because your actual exposure is $50.

While this is a conservative view, it will also accurately reflects reality if things go bad.

 

(while not anti selling options, it never really features in my trading but often people underestimate the risks of selling them, verses the perceived returns)

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Unless the stock declines to $45, and it is put to you at $50 - then you will be paying an 9.1% premium, and that doesn't take into account commissions and fees.

 

Its a matter of perspective.

 

Good luck with your trading.

 

-optiontimer

 

There is always the option of buying back the put if the stock go against him.

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There is always the option of buying back the put if the stock go against him.

 

Of course, but he sold it for $0.90, which means he collected $90 less commissions and fees.

 

If the stock declines to $49, how much will it cost him to buy it back? Even on opex he'll pay a dime above intrinsic, plus commission and fees, or $110 + costs.

 

How much will he pay if the stock is at $48? $45? $30?

 

The risk, even on a "safe" company like ABT, is very real. ABT traded as high as $57.36 the week ending 2/13/09. During the week ending 3/13/09, ABT traded as low as $44.10. Had he sold the April $55 for $0.90, he'd have either been buying the stock for $55 while it was $11 lower at the market, or he'd have bought back his $90 put for a cool $1100. That's risk!

 

I know one trader who had sold AMSC April 22.50 puts for $1.25, and with two weeks to expiration the stock closed just below $25. The next day it opened at $13. He hoped the sell-off was over done, and by the time the margin clerk came a calling, he was forced to close them at $11. So he sold them and "collected" $125 less commissions and fees. He bought them back paying $1100, plus commissions and fees. The stock is now $8.62.

 

As SIUYA said, when it comes to being short options, "often people underestimate the risks of selling them."

 

I wish him good luck with his trading, but I think he could benefit from another perspective.

 

-OT

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the other problem with buying back the put is that often if the stock is in a bit of trouble volatility goes up and liquidity can dry up in the market (depends on the stock). The other rule which must be adhered if adopting a short volatility strategy is always buy the options back when they are a few cents - who cares if they are theoretically worth zero, you did not sell them because of their theoretical values.....buy them back when you have made most of the money. It will only take one day to wipe out lots of gains.

 

Selling options IS a valid strategy - but you need to know the risks and what your real exposure is.....additionally it generally helps to approach it in a portfolio insurance company like manner, knowing that the ''law'' of large numbers (if there really is such a thing :) ) then works partially in your favour.

 

Think about this, and many people dont, or when they do it makes them think more about the risk retruns - the most you will make when selling options (or most things) is the price you sell it for. There is no possibility to compound returns from the original trade.

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I was suggesting buying back the put as a risk management technique opposed to letting the option expire and being assigned - that was the only point I was trying to make. Depending on the critera used to exit he could/would still lose money buying it back; but not nearly as much as being assigned a dropping stock.

 

I'm not trying to argue the points being made, I think all the things mentioned are valid in this case; however, they are also valid is most cases: underlying instrument moves against you, gapping down hard overnight, profit rapidly eroding, etc. Ultimately, I think we are saying the same thing - know your risk before entering the trade and have an exit strategy in case things turn against you.

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adding to optiontimers IMHO perfect analysis is that, you will get a

 

90 cents/5000 cents = 1.8% return for 2 months (still not too bad)

 

This is because your actual exposure is $50.

While this is a conservative view, it will also accurately reflects reality if things go bad.

 

(while not anti selling options, it never really features in my trading but often people underestimate the risks of selling them, verses the perceived returns)

 

optiontimer\siuya - thanks for the feedback, yes i haven't discussed the risk of this trade, or more importantly i haven't defined the exit. the risk mitigation i've taken is based on fundamentals of the company. essentially, i only sell these options for companies i *would* buy and i am long-term bullish on. if i do get put the shares i will start to sell covered calls on the shares to generate more income, and i also get to collect the dividends. so you won't see me doing this for linkedin or salesform.com :)

 

and even though the mathematical exposure is $50, the *probably* exposure is not as ABT is not going to $0 anytime soon.

 

but you've given me some good things to think about with regards to the exit. maybe i need to set a target where i buy back the puts or buy a put somewhere below $50?

 

-mslk

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The other rule which must be adhered if adopting a short volatility strategy is always buy the options back when they are a few cents - who cares if they are theoretically worth zero, you did not sell them because of their theoretical values.....buy them back when you have made most of the money. It will only take one day to wipe out lots of gains.

 

thanks for this nugget suiya! makes complete sense and i will start doing this :thumbs up:

-mslk

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update exelon (EXC)

- in april i sold june $41 puts for $0.7 and they expired worthless last week

- booked a 8% gain on the $8.2 margin

 

second trade exelon (EXC)

- sell, to open, exelon (EXC) august $41 puts for at least $0.9, stock is at $42

- if options expire worthless, i get 11% return on my 20% margin requirement of $8.2 for 2 months work

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $41, and taking into account the $0.9 premium, i'm buying the stock at 4.5% discount

- EXC pays a 5.1% dividend and is one of the best utility\energy stocks on the market. if i am put the stock i will sell covered calls to improve the returns

 

-mslk

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... the risk mitigation i've taken is based on fundamentals of the company...

 

In options trading time, and timing, is everything, and fundamentals have little to nothing to do with it.

 

I understand what you are trying to do, and I hope you do well with your strategy. I still do not believe that you appreciate the reward to risk ratio with which you are playing.

 

I look forward to following your journal, and I again, I do hope that you do very, very well.

 

-optiontimer

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I was suggesting buying back the put as a risk management technique opposed to letting the option expire and being assigned - that was the only point I was trying to make. Depending on the critera used to exit he could/would still lose money buying it back; but not nearly as much as being assigned a dropping stock

 

The opinion of buying back as a risk management technique is valid, but in other hand

the fact that the breakeven point is the strike price minus the premiun collected is often not fully appreciate, at time of assigment . SO lets says if you had a credit of $1000.00 and you buy back TO CLOSE A short OPEN POSITION , you have to give back the credit to pay for the increase in price of the option .plus the spread BID_ASK , plus commision ..while if assigned you keep the premium and buy the underlying at strike price and sell at actual current price. ( Hopefully with a lost of less than $1000)

If you do the math , especially in OTM options , and based on that math you sell short

same number of shares , before being assigned , then you are ahead beign assigned ..as opposed to buying to close The drawback is that is needed a relatively large account or margin to sell short .

 

Did I explained myself well or my terrible syntax is bearish. ::confused:

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[HIGHLIGHT YELLOW]

Did I explained myself well or my terrible syntax is bearish. ::confused:

 

yes thanks for the note, i need an excel sheet to figure all of this out before executing a trade!

-mslk

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What all that means is ...that if you have a large enough account , or margin .

AND you feel that your sold option is gettting close to be in the money , is better to cover it and let it be assigned , rather than closing it buying back

 

Doing so you keep the original credit , and no slippage loss (BID-ask) , no commision

Then you close the position that is against you at no loss .

 

:doh:...

 

Moderated Message:
I have not seen this discussed in details in any book so far or in any forum .

and mostly the prevailing concept is buy it back to close, don't be assigned ....in my opinion is not the best way .....but would like discuss it further for reassurance

as it can be very productive money management issue to prevent disater

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New Trades - July 25, 2011

 

johnson & johnson (JNJ)

- sell, to open, jnj (JNJ) sept $65 puts for at least $0.87, stock is ~ $66

- if options expire worthless, i get 6.7% return on my margin in two months ($0.87 / (20% of $65 strike) == 6.7%)

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $65, and taking into account the $0.87 premium, i'm buying the stock at 3.7% discount

 

medtronic (MDT)

- sell, to open, medtronic (MDT) sept $35 puts for at least $0.6, stock is ~ $37

- if options expire worthless, i get 8.6% return on my margin in two months ($0.6 / (20% of $35 strike) == 8.6%)

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $35, and taking into account the $0.6 premium, i'm buying the stock at 6.9% discount

 

microsoft (MSFT)

- sell, to open, microsoft (MSFT) sept $26 puts for at least $0.46, stock is ~ $27

- if options expire worthless, i get 7.4% return on my margin in two months ($0.46 / (20% of $26 strike) == 7.4%)

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $26, and taking into account the $0.46 premium, i'm buying the stock at 5.9% discount

 

will update trades from last week's expiration shortly ...

 

-mslk

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New Trades - July 25, 2011

 

johnson & johnson (JNJ)

- sell, to open, jnj (JNJ) sept $65 puts for at least $0.87, stock is ~ $66... if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $65, and taking into account the $0.87 premium, i'm buying the stock at 3.7% discount

 

Stock is now $61.12, so you paid a 4.7% premium based upon your cost basis, exclusive of of commissions and fees.

 

medtronic (MDT)

- sell, to open, medtronic (MDT) sept $35 puts for at least $0.6, stock is ~ $37... if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $35, and taking into account the $0.6 premium, i'm buying the stock at 6.9% discount

 

Stock is now $31.07, so you paid a 9.7% premium based upon your cost basis, exclusive of of commissions and fees.

 

microsoft (MSFT)

- sell, to open, microsoft (MSFT) sept $26 puts for at least $0.46, stock is ~ $27... if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $26, and taking into account the $0.46 premium, i'm buying the stock at 5.9% discount

 

Stock is now $24.48, so you paid a 4.1% premium based upon your cost basis, exclusive of of commissions and fees.

 

This is the type of risk I was warning of earlier in your thread, when you seemed only to focus upon your potential ability to buy stock "at a discount." It is a discount until the stock continues to decline, now it is a premium that you paid.

 

Unless the stock declines ... and it is put to you ... then you will be paying a ...premium, and that doesn't take into account commissions and fees.

 

Its a matter of perspective....

 

-optiontimer

 

That discount you thought you were getting turns into a premium very quickly. As SIUYA cautioned earlier in this thread, when it scomes to selling options,

 

... often people underestimate the risks of selling them, verses the perceived return

 

And, if I may, here is another lesson worth jotting down in your notebook.

 

In options trading, time and timing, is everything...

 

I do wish you well with your trading, and I hope other would-be options traders do not follow your present path.

 

Options should be used to magnify gains and limit losses. You have it backwards.

 

-optiontimer

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thanks for the feedback. this market has definetely turned some of these trades in the wrong direction! but i just have to wait it out and see how they are closer to expiry in sept.

- mslk

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i'm newbie when it comes to active\day\swing\trend-trading but i've been trading options (primarily for income) for a little bit. i'm starting this thread to share some of my option trades and to record how i'm doing on them. hopefully this will help me cover the cost of learning how to day-trade! :haha:

 

most of my trades are *selling* put options on big safe companies with dividends, with the intent the option expires worthless and i collect the premium. if it doesn't expire then i get to buy the stock at a discount.

 

Disclaimer: i am not an investment professional and this is NOT investment advice!

 

first trade abbott labs (ABT)

- sell, to open, abbott labs (ABT) august $50 puts for at least $0.9.

- if options expire worthless, i get 9% return on my 20% margin requirement for 2 months work

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $50, and taking into account the $0.9 premium, i'm buying the stock at 4.7% discount

- ABT pays a 3.7% dividend, has a strong balance sheet, and is a large diversified health care company just ready for the onslaught of baby-boomers

 

-mslk

 

On the day before expiry, I bought the option back at $0.68 for a profit of $0.22 for a return of 2.2%. The S&P downgrade really messed up some of my trades. happy this was still profitable.

 

-mslk

Edited by mslk

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update exelon (EXC)

- in april i sold june $41 puts for $0.7 and they expired worthless last week

- booked a 8% gain on the $8.2 margin

 

second trade exelon (EXC)

- sell, to open, exelon (EXC) august $41 puts for at least $0.9, stock is at $42

- if options expire worthless, i get 11% return on my 20% margin requirement of $8.2 for 2 months work

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $41, and taking into account the $0.9 premium, i'm buying the stock at 4.5% discount

- EXC pays a 5.1% dividend and is one of the best utility\energy stocks on the market. if i am put the stock i will sell covered calls to improve the returns

 

-mslk

 

better result on this trade, closed a day early (thanks SUIYA for the rec! :)). bought back at $0.05 for a profit of $0.85 - a 10.4% return on the original margin. EXC is a good stock for this strategy because of its price range is relatively tight.

 

-mslk

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better result on this trade, closed a day early (thanks SUIYA for the rec! :)). bought back at $0.05 for a profit of $0.85 - a 10.4% return on the original margin. EXC is a good stock for this strategy because of its price range is relatively tight.

 

-mslk

 

time go back to the well on (EXC)

- sell, to open, exelon (EXC) october $41 puts for at least $1.1, stock is at $42

- if options expire worthless, i get 13.4% return

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $41, and taking into account the $1.1 premium, i'm buying the stock at 5% discount

 

-mslk

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Stock is now $61.12, so you paid a 4.7% premium based upon your cost basis, exclusive of of commissions and fees.

 

stock back up to $64+ and trade almost back in the black

 

Stock is now $31.07, so you paid a 9.7% premium based upon your cost basis, exclusive of of commissions and fees.

 

stock back up to $34+ and trade almost back in the black

 

Stock is now $24.48, so you paid a 4.1% premium based upon your cost basis, exclusive of of commissions and fees.

 

stock back up to $25+ and trade almost back in the black

 

This is the type of risk I was warning of earlier in your thread, when you seemed only to focus upon your potential ability to buy stock "at a discount." It is a discount until the stock continues to decline, now it is a premium that you paid.

 

yup there is risk with every trade and yes it sucks buying stock at a premium! thankfully i haven't had to yet.

 

Options should be used to magnify gains and limit losses. You have it backwards.

 

agreed that is one way of using options, but its not the only way.

 

- mslk

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sorry for the late update but happy to show most sept trades went well. please see below ...

 

New Trades - July 25, 2011

 

johnson & johnson (JNJ)

- sell, to open, jnj (JNJ) sept $65 puts for at least $0.87, stock is ~ $66

- if options expire worthless, i get 6.7% return on my margin in two months ($0.87 / (20% of $65 strike) == 6.7%)

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $65, and taking into account the $0.87 premium, i'm buying the stock at 3.7% discount

 

shares assigned to me at $65, collected premium of $0.87, shared now at $64.18. So i'm about break even on this trade.

 

sold nov $65 calls for $1.66. if it goes back up to $65 and foreced to sell, i'll be profiting both my original $0.87 + my new $1.66 calls. if JNJ hangs around where it is at, i will continue to sell calls against it. this is the power of trading options against *strong* companies like JNJ

 

 

medtronic (MDT)

- sell, to open, medtronic (MDT) sept $35 puts for at least $0.6, stock is ~ $37

- if options expire worthless, i get 8.6% return on my margin in two months ($0.6 / (20% of $35 strike) == 8.6%)

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $35, and taking into account the $0.6 premium, i'm buying the stock at 6.9% discount

 

expired and collected entire premium

 

microsoft (MSFT)

- sell, to open, microsoft (MSFT) sept $26 puts for at least $0.46, stock is ~ $27

- if options expire worthless, i get 7.4% return on my margin in two months ($0.46 / (20% of $26 strike) == 7.4%)

- if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $26, and taking into account the $0.46 premium, i'm buying the stock at 5.9% discount

 

expired and collected entire premium

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new trades - sept 2011

 

MSFT

- sell, to open, nov $24 puts for at $1.03, stock is ~ $25

- if options expire worthless, i get 21.4% return on my margin in two months ($1.03 / (20% of $24 strike) == 21.4%)

 

MDT

- sell, to open, nov $32 puts for at $1.5, stock is ~ $33.5

- if options expire worthless, i get 23.4% return on my margin in two months ($1.5 / (20% of $32 strike) == 23.4%)

 

**these trades are working out WELL ... why buy stocks when you can make 20% on your margin requirements every 2 months?!

 

-mslk

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new trades - oct 2011

 

XOM

- sell, to open, jan $65 puts for at $2.45, stock is ~ $73.5

- if options expire worthless, i get 18.8% return on my margin in three months ($12.45 / (20% of $65 strike) == 18.8%)

- XOM would have to drop from $73.5 all the way to $62.5 before I'm losing this trade. most recent time XOM was that low was back in oct 2010.

 

MCD

- sell, to open, jan $72.5 puts for at $1.13, stock is ~ $87

- if options expire worthless, i get 7.8% return on my margin in three months ($1.13 / (20% of $72.5 strike) == 7.8%)

- MCD would have to drop from $87 all the way to $71.5 before I'm losing this trade. most recent time MCD was that low was back in aug 2010.

 

KO

- sell, to open, nov $65 puts for at $1.29, stock is ~ $67

- if options expire worthless, i get 9.9% return on my margin in *one* months ($1.29 / (20% of $65 strike) == 9.9%)

 

 

and all of these trades, i would be *happy* to purchase these shares at the strike prices ... so the strategy is simple, collect put premiums until you can buy your shares at fire-sale prices

 

- mslk

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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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