[The Pip Thief]

Hello,

I use PositionSizer.com add-on for order entry and I love it but I need a program for analysis of position sizing. Like one that will help me find out the best bet size. I have done a little research and found Sator but no others.

Has anyone used Stator? If so what do you think?

Has anyone head of any other Position Sizing analysis software?

Thanks,

The Pip Thief

[The Pip Thief]

Here is some money management! Risked 99 Pounds this morning and got back around 2300 in less than 3 hours. I showed this with a sim account because I do not know how to erase account with my screen capture.

I did not scale in on this trade because I got nervous, but there was a great opportunity to scale in on the second ABC as you will see in the graphic. I was able to take a position for $250,000 with only risking 99 GBP and an 8 point stop. PositionSizer did all the conversion for me - I am not going to go into that here because it is done automatically. I personally only risk 1% because I get too nervous with 2% and as you can see you can still make great money with 1%.

The Pip Thief

[The Pip Thief]

Two more ABC patterns this morning! I missed them both. But I did get in on the second trade that you will see. I am using a target on this one because it is counter trend and I will be moving my stop up when the ATR moves above break even.

I am half way there wish me luck!

The Pip Thief

[Trader333]

I need a program for analysis of position sizing

In what context ? Can you give an example of what you are looking for ?


Paul

[The Pip Thief]

Thanks for your response. I want to do what if analysis and simulations of R-multiples to overcome my fear of using more that one percent risk. I want to see the best R-multiple based on my trades. Should I be using more than one percent or more statistically based on my win rate of 43% with 9% break even trades.

I am happy using 1% risk but I think I could push it a little more. I think those that use 2% are crazy! But are they? Can I prove based on my system that I can up my risk? If I do, what will the simulation tell me about max draw downs. Bye the way. I broke even on the trade I took. Check out the pick.

This is what I am looking for in a Analysis/Simulation program and I do not want to give an arm and a tooth for it if you know what I mean.

The Pip Thief.

Thanks

[Trader333]

You could try a MonteCarlo simulation as this will give an idea of your risk of ruin based on percent risk, reward factor and strike rate. I wrote and article on this which has a downloadable Excel spreadsheet that may help and I will pm you the link.



Paul

[The Pip Thief]

Here is another example of proper position sizing with a different system. This is an inside low range bar system. If ATR is for red for short. That means we look for short trades. Now if a bar with a low range appears which are color pink we look to see if it is inside the previous bar. If yes and the low is broken then we enter short and follow the ATR stop. If the bars high is broken then the signal is canceled.

Check out the photo to understand more. One thing to remember is that the smaller your bar, the smaller your stop, which in turn gives you much more profit on a smaller move.

I have to state the disadvantage. You will get stopped out more but I find it well worth it when you get in for 9 pips and the market falls 150 pips. With a win rate in the 40 % range you can still make money.

If you were to have gotten in on this trade you would be out with a 7% profit in less than an hour.

Look at the pink inside bar just before the entry bar. Not taken because the ATR was blue and the inside bar broke to the short side.

Again it is the money management side of the business that makes all the difference. I was able show how to size right up to your intended % risk. This is important to keep all losses the same since it is the only thing we can quantify in trading.

Put another way. You just paid for your next 7 losses.

The second photo is a 2 minute chart. Just ask yourself how you would have trade this set-up and if your position sizing would have resulted in the same 13R win in 2 hours. 99 pound risked and 1300 reward. This is trading. Now you just paid for 13 next losses. Maybe you can start to risk 2% for the next couple of trades.

The Pip Thief

[The Pip Thief]

More inside bar trades with low range. The first is a loss for 1R and second makes it all back and then some. Check out the pics. If you are using proper position sizing with this kind of set up then the risk reward can be nice and since you are following with a trailing stop your risk is free quite nicely in timely manner. In the second pic your risk was cleared in 2 minutes.

It is all about risk management. You need to protect what is yours in order to be alive for the big ones. These are what really grow your account. The plus 20R trades. They are rare but do happen. 6-10R can happen quite often if you can get in with a 10 pip stop. Then the market only needs to move 60 points and you are up 6R. In this case you only need to win 18 out of 100 to break even. 28 out 100 and you are up 60%.

I showed at the bottom the pip value in GBP. Having your risk in your base currency is vital to success. There is a 60% difference in how much you can buy between the pound and dollar. That is a big error. Instead of risking 1% you are actually risk 1.6% or .4% depending on the conversion.

The Pip Thief