[Rivest]

I have to go with Plungee on this, you are 100% in game. Your all in.

[dangermouseb]

My 2p.

I think if the problem is framed as either 0% or 200% then it gets oversimplified. You trade your beliefs about position sizing and correlation. If you are very technical then you'd want to do some Monte-Carlo - a boot strap similar to van's approach (figure out your non-correlated R multiples and your correlated R multiples from backtest results), a permutation analysis (e.g. from Evidence Based Technical Analysis). You should also look at the sharpe ratio as well as Van's System Quality Number. The point is to be familiar to how much volatility is in your system and tuning the risk amount in relation to your capital to meet your objectives (e.g. 50% chance of making 50% per annum with a 10% chance of a 25% peak to trough drawdown).

Happy to provide further pointers.

DM