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Old 10-29-2013, 12:24 AM   #9

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Re: Random Trading & Natural Selection

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Originally Posted by MidKnight »
Player B for me

OMG my message is too short so I had to write this
I would change that avatar..bad karma,it looks like pacman is permanently swallowing losses
But then mine suggests i'll end up committing suicide,but not before I make a 100 million...i'll take that deal
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Old 10-29-2013, 07:17 AM   #10

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Re: Random Trading & Natural Selection

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Originally Posted by MidKnight »
Player B for me

OMG my message is too short so I had to write this
Obviously.

Now consider another game. A market will either tick up or down with each trade. If there are five consecutive up ticks or down ticks, Player A wins 200. If there are not five consecutive upticks or downticks, then Player B will receive 20.

Who would you sooner be, Player A, or Player B?

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Old 10-29-2013, 07:25 AM   #11

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Random Trading & Karaoke Divas

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Originally Posted by mitsubishi »
This is not random................... .............
A Random Girl Steps Up To A Karaoke Machine and Floors Everyone - YouTube
Assume the crowd are just a bunch of random people in a shopping centre (or "mall", for most of you) . . . I would be willing to bet that the next person to walk up to that karaoke machine was a worse singer.

That's random.

That's regression to the mean.

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Old 10-29-2013, 01:26 PM   #12

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Re: Random Trading & Karaoke Divas

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Assume the crowd are just a bunch of random people in a shopping centre (or "mall", for most of you) . . . I would be willing to bet that the next person to walk up to that karaoke machine was a worse singer.

That's random.

That's regression to the mean.

BlueHorseshoe

ZDO has"a gazillion things to do" so he's sent me in here as a surrogate messer.So..in the style of ZDO.....

Far be it from me to disrupt this potentially excellent thread bud (as yet to manifest it's own humble ambushions)

To identify something as random is in itself and of itself (not in any random order) a definable and quantifiable pattern.In deciding that the next person" is random is system bias of a potentially destructive (to one's account ) nature.

One can see the flaws within the universally accepted EW pattern of 5 random girl singers followed by 3 potential boyband rejects as a paradigm of shopping malls not envisaged by the original architects who built the emporium..mall...shopping centre..whatever....just one thing not considered in your original pdf.
One must always seek to go beyond initiation thoughts..they are simply the spark needed to light the match..practical application however may require several shifts in perception as to what is meant by "random"
Random price movements conform to predictable distribution models.

So,random "is" predictable BUT deciding on context is what screws with end user results..unintended consequences

One must first establish that the video was not a setup designed to look random.The obvious trade rarely strays far from sod's law.I would scale in only having eliminated these possibilities-(,and reach NO conclusions regarding concepts of randombless not least before the fat lady sings)

1-this is an Asian version of Xfactor
2-the bitch is miming
3-her twin sister who is an even better singer is next to take the microphone.......

just for starters....
And..when confronted with a gift horse (particularly a blue one ) force it's jaws open and take a damn good look inside before betting the farm.

I'd post a few unrelating and confused links if I had the time,but I got a gazillion things to do...
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Old 10-30-2013, 07:06 AM   #13

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Re: Random Trading & Karaoke Divas

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Originally Posted by mitsubishi »

Far be it from me to disrupt this potentially excellent thread bud (as yet to manifest it's own humble ambushions)
I wouldn't worry about that - I'm surprised the thread ever re-surfaced!

Whether price is random or not doesn't really have too much to do with the original point I was trying to make - assuming that it is (I don't) is just the easiest way to present the concept and removes the possibility of any objection on the basis of a trader's inability to predict prices (which, ironically, is the argument you're now trying make in reverse!).

The thread is posted under "Money Management" because that is what it is about.

I would summarise its main points as follows:
  • Rather than applying a position-sizing formula to a portfolio based on the net profitability of that portfolio, it may make sense to apply the position-sizing to each strategy or market individually, based on the net profitability of that strategy or market.
  • This can include situations where the strategies are applied in the same market, and even those where they are applied simultaneously so that, in single contract terms, they are completely neutral (pre costs).

I'm far more interested to hear reasons why this money-management approach is flawed than I am in discussions about whether price movement is random.

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Old 10-30-2013, 07:44 AM   #14

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Re: Random Trading & Natural Selection

Here is another experiment:

The BH is a contract that is very similar to the ES. It exhibits the same volatility and the contract value is identical. When BH moves 1 point, you stand to make or lose $50, just as with the ES.

You have a strategy which you may trade in either or both of these contracts.

You also know the historical performance of the strategy in each of these markets:

BH 20%
ES (20%)

What do you do?

Fast forward 1 year, and the returns for each market are now as follows . . .

BH (20%)
ES 20%

The trader who decided to only trade the BH, where historically the strategy had been profitable, has lost 20%.

The trader who decided to trade single contracts in both the ES and the BH has broken even.

The trader who decided to trade both the ES and the BH applying a fixed fractional money management approach is (roughly) breakeven. Though the profits from the ES would have allowed larger position sizing, this would have been reflected in the position sizing for both markets, so the losses in BH would also have been correspondingly larger.

The trader who began trading single contracts in each market but increased position-size for each particular market based on the strategy's profitability in that particular market should show a net profit. His single contract returns for ES would be negated by his single contract returns for BH, but he would have been trading multiple contracts of ES, leaving a net profit.

I have described what is hopefully a worst-case scenario again here; if you think you have a great strategy, then maybe it would have made 50% in one market and only lost 2% in the other, or whatever . . .

The outcome for a strategy isn't based on all of the price change of the instrument it is applied to - all that matters is the price change at those times when strategy and price intersect (when you have a position) - call that limited set of prices Data Set A. If a second strategy intersects with different prices and we call these prices Data Set B, then when you compare Data Set A and Data Set B you will have two different sets of price, which is pretty much the same thing as having two different markets. Hence exactly what I have described above with the ES and BH could be applied with two different strategies in just one single market.

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Last edited by tradingwizzard; 10-31-2013 at 08:12 AM.
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Old 10-31-2013, 07:47 AM   #15

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Become a WINNER today!!!

Are you REALLY serious about making SUBSTANTIAL profits trading the financial markets? Then take a look at the equity curve for the AMAZING trading strategy below . . .
  • Profitable over 10 years of ES data
  • Contains no element of curve fitting or optimised parameters
  • Sample size of well over 1000 trades

Wouldn't you love to be able to trade with this FANTASTIC strategy that just keeps on WINNING? Imagine what these PROFITS would look like if you traded more than one contract or many markets at once!

ONE-TIME SPECIAL OFFER - NUMBERS STRICTLY LIMITED - GET THE STRATEGY AT A 20% DISCOUNTED PRICE OF JUST $3800 !!!

BlueHorseshoe


Code:
// Buys or Sells Short randomly on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
// One day holding period
// Generated attached equity curve on first attempt

if Dayofweek(date)=1 or Dayofweek(date)=3 or Dayofweek(date)=5 then begin
	if random(10)>4 then
	buy this bar
	else
	sellshort this bar;
end;

If Barssinceentry=1 then
Setexitonclose;
Attached Thumbnails
Random Trading & Natural Selection-streaky-returns.png  
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Old 10-31-2013, 12:59 PM   #16

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Re: Become a WINNER today!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueHorseshoe »
Are you REALLY serious about making SUBSTANTIAL profits trading the financial markets? Then take a look at the equity curve for the AMAZING trading strategy below . . .
  • Profitable over 10 years of ES data
  • Contains no element of curve fitting or optimised parameters
  • Sample size of well over 1000 trades

Wouldn't you love to be able to trade with this FANTASTIC strategy that just keeps on WINNING? Imagine what these PROFITS would look like if you traded more than one contract or many markets at once!

ONE-TIME SPECIAL OFFER - NUMBERS STRICTLY LIMITED - GET THE STRATEGY AT A 20% DISCOUNTED PRICE OF JUST $3800 !!!

BlueHorseshoe


Code:
// Buys or Sells Short randomly on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
// One day holding period
// Generated attached equity curve on first attempt

if Dayofweek(date)=1 or Dayofweek(date)=3 or Dayofweek(date)=5 then begin
	if random(10)>4 then
	buy this bar
	else
	sellshort this bar;
end;

If Barssinceentry=1 then
Setexitonclose;

Even though you've given out the code for free,nevertheless,can I still give you the 3800?
I've been trading for 17 days now and have still not made anywhere near the 1k profit per day that Roger said I would easily make.When I questioned his hindsight trades on the simulator he ignored me.Then when I asked him to explain why he kept changing his "system" I was banned from the trading room after being sworn at and told that the system is not as important as the mental approach,and since Roger is mental himself and isn't a psychologist I feel............:confused : confused.
I'm still determined to find a mentor,anyone,prepared to rip me off in exchange for rehashing things they found on the internet but I can't find anyone who can keep a trading room running for more than 2 months without disgruntled customers threatening to sue them.
I know I should do some due diligence before handing over money I can't really afford to these nice people who care so much about me,but if I do that i'm scared I might find out they are telling porkies...why does reality always suck so much?
All I want is a simple code like the one above so I don't have to use my brain.The last time I used my brain it hurt so much I swore I would never try thinking for myself again.
Roger was almost the last straw.

Even though he looks like a car salesman with his fingers crossed behind his back.grinning like a conman who just stole somebody's locker key and found 100k in a travel bag,i was impressed with the number of computers he was posing in front of.Only after talking to others have I subsequently found out that the ex carpet salesman is now selling computors-not trading on them

I like your idea of trading as many instruments as you possibly can at once so you don't lose potential profits by only successfully trading one or two.It's this kind of mental approach that separates the theorists from the wannabe traders.Are you planning to start a room soon? If so,is the room inc in the 3800 fee?

Regards. I.Diot,Boise ,Idaho
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