[Dogpile]

just took another look at that 8/30 day in my previous post... it never made a new low in the afternoon. therefore, statistically it would qualify as a day where low was made in opening 30-mins AND a day where high for the day was made before lunchtime. good example of a day where you could make money from both sides as there was not much Taylor bias -- 8/29 was a buy day and came into 8/30 with residual upside momentum from strong 8/29 action (can see how gap down was bought aggressively just after the open). curious what your 'post-mortem' on 8/30 is ant? how do you think about the structure for that day in context with previous action?

[ant]

Originally Posted by Dogpile »

curious what your 'post-mortem' on 8/30 is ant? how do you think about the structure for that day in context with previous action?

See the post here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...html#post18091

[marketguy]

Just found this thread, Ant. Thanks so much.

Have you ever run stats on the Dalton's Value Area Trade (and the supposed 80 % likelihood of the market returning to the opposite value extreme)?

Wonder how close to truth that is? Larry Levin on Value Area Trade.doc

Thanks.

Bryan

[Minetoo]

Ant, good work. Your idea has been studied/proven a number of times in the past. Larry Pesavento's 'Opening Price Principle' (http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips67.htm) and to some degree John Clayburg's DDF (directional day filter)(http://www.clayburg.com/ddf_home.htm) expound on the exact same phenomenon.

[idetsc]

Originally Posted by ant »

All of the other day types have range extension, where one of the extremes of the IB is taken out. Since you're a betting man, always place your bet on range extension since about 95%+ of the time one of the IB extremes will be exceeded.

ant,

thank you so much for geneurosly providing these stats.

I am referring to your quote above. May I ask you if you could provide us with stats regarding the probability of reaching multiples of the IB? I often read that the 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 range extentions provide a kind of support/resistance. So since without any doubt the IB is very important, I thought it could also be valueable to know how significantly the IB is exceeded, respectively on which magnitude.

Thanks again and kindest regards,
idetsc

[ant]

Hi Idetsc,

I won't provide any stats, but will tell you that that is an area worth researching on your own. All the best with your trading!

Antonio

[alleyb]

idetsc
Consider the following that range extention outside the first hour denotes a day structure that is anything but NORMAL. So if a ND is defined as first 60 minutes contains the day then consider how often that a ND actually occurs.. Looking inside my Data WareHouse I find that ND occur on 6.47%. Normal days are the exception range extentions is the Norm