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Old 03-28-2011, 01:42 PM   #17

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Re: Using MP for Opening Hour

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Originally Posted by abuguapo »
Steve46...(or anyone who might have an opinion)...I've often wondered about the potential of pre-market trading as being a method of (simply) finding good market placement before the 9:30 crush. It seems that (I'm simply picking a number out of the air) say 30-40% of the time - if you were to simply 'go with' the current market action you'd be well placed through 9:30 - 10 crush. But then when best to get into the premarket action? (for instance I've seen things start at times as early as 3 or 5 or 7...with a definite bump (in volume) happening around 8-8:30. Does anyone (who would care to chime in) do this as a matter of practice? Any resources as suggestions where a 'lemming' like me might look for answers...any help is much appreciated...hope this is still on topic for thread...

g
Sir (or Madam) Mr or Ms Guapo

Based on your comment, I see you are able to think critically about this subject....you have it nailed...most of us try to position ourselves outside the formal open and close of RTH....We do that by looking for favorable entry based on time-based pivots, and by evaluating the local distribution (depending on your preference that might be hourly or say every couple of hours). Alternatively some professionals define a series of "critical time periods"..where they see other participants moving to position themselves prior to the open of various markets (this is done so that we can position ourselves in markets around the world)....

The most obvious example is the currency markets...where some of the best opportunities are found when two primary markets open or close and also at the close of any two primary markets... If we are talking about the US (the S&P Futures for example) then I suggest you look at the timing of the various economic reports in relation to the US open....Most of the time, those reports are released about an hour prior to the open....and often they impact market significantly...

Finally there is the subject of timing in the "Macro" scale...you may want to ask yourself, what do the big institutions do just prior to the end of a quarter (where we are right now) or at the end of each month (what some call "window dressing"), what kind of decisions do they make in terms of mobilizing capital?

Finally, I think your best resource is between your ears...your ability to think about what the other players are doing....take a look at your charts and ask yourself, what is happening just prior to the open...what is happening (generally on daily charts) just prior to the end of each quarter, end of each month, end of each week....in a couple of my charts (an institutional look at the S&P futures) I pointed out at least one example where on a Friday, the market rallied after testing the previous week's open....is that a coincidence?...well all I can say is in a trending market, I am willing to take that bet every time....

Its an important subject that retail traders mostly ignore...

Good luck to you

Last edited by steve46; 03-28-2011 at 02:12 PM.
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Old 03-29-2011, 01:31 AM   #18

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Re: Using MP for Opening Hour

abuguapo-

I always put on my gap fill trade during the 1.5hrs leading up to the NYSE cash session open. That is I look to enter in the direction of the prior day's 4pm close. This has been one of my highest probability trades.
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