10-02-2006, 09:07 PM
|
#1 |
Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: USA Thanks: 22
Thanked 314 Times in 81 Posts
| ES Analysis for 10/03/06
Thought I'd share my ES analysis for tomorrow which includes key reference areas identified using Market Profile. First, let's look at what happened today. Refer to the chart below. Coming into 10/02, the ES was in a short-term, 3-day trading range so the key reference areas were the upper/lower limits of the trading range and the middle of the distribution (or high volume node). On 10/02, the ES opened and traded down to the lower bracket limit of 3-day composite at 1343.50 and bounced off of it. Typically, if a responsive trade is taken here, the target is the middle of the distribution. One thing to keep in mind is that when price is rejected at one of the bracket extremes, it could trade forcefully to the opposite side of the bracket. So if you're in a trade, monitor internals and see if it would make sense to continue to hold for a play of the opposite bracket extreme and a potential breakout. Notice that a high volume area will usually slow down a market as it did in the ES today when it traded near the 1347.75. Markets do not usually reverse on a dime at high volume areas (not true for low volume areas although high/low volume areas both act as support/resistance but for different reasons). Today, the ES traded to the high volume area of the composite between 1347 and 1348.25 and reversed. This becomes a key reference area for tomorrow. Afterwards, the ES traded through the lower bracket limit of the composite on high volume and slowed down around the high volume area of 9/26. Again, the high volume area slowed down the ES giving the trader time to monitor price action and make the appropriate trading decision to either exit a position, continue holding a position, or add to a position.
The selling range extension around 1343 left single prints in today's market profile which also coincides with the lower bracket limit of the composite. 1343 - 1343.25 should serve as the immediate upside key reference area followed by the high volume node at 1347 and 1348.25. To the downside, the low volume area from 9/26 at 1336.50 - 1335 is the key reference area. Could this be the lower limit of a larger bracket that will form? I don't know, but we'll see. As the ES approaches one of these key reference areas, I will monitor market internals and then apply the appropriate trading tactic. In the morning, I will review overnight trading and determine which key reference areas immediately above/below where the ES is trading at the time. Note that no predictions have been made here. I have identified key reference areas, but I don't know whether I will be going long or short until the market trades near these areas and market internals are monitored.  |
| |
Linear Mode
