[Soultrader]

Originally Posted by CandleWhisperer »

Basic MP question. Forgive my ignorance here, but how long into the day does one have to wait to "see" enough of a developed profile to make trading decisions?

It would be trader preference but alot of the traders I talk in Tokyo wait for the initial balance to develop first. I also obtain a clearer picture of the developing profile by waiting until the IB settles. However, I do take trades at the opening if price is at or near S&R levels... or is quickly rejected above/below key mp levels.

Waiting for the IB to complete helps as the range of the IB leaves good clues on the type of day we are likely to have.

[CandleWhisperer]

Thanks soul. Just one more thing. If you just wait until the initial balance is complete, don't you only have As and Bs? If so , do you have enough data points to get a sense of where the value area might be?

[Soultrader]

Originally Posted by CandleWhisperer »

Thanks soul. Just one more thing. If you just wait until the initial balance is complete, don't you only have As and Bs? If so , do you have enough data points to get a sense of where the value area might be?

Sure, even A and B period alone is enough to develop strategies around it. Not necessarily the developing value but below is a setup from March 14, 2008 that bests illustrates this. We had a very wide IB telling us that price was most likely going to rotate within the IB. Hence, a strategy built around this concept was to fade the test of high or low.

[Soultrader]

Originally Posted by Soultrader »

Interesting price action on March 19, 2008. However value area is overlapping to higher. Daily charts shows a nice double bottom test on lower supply volume.

The following day, the markets tested the pdl before rallying higher. This is one of my favorite patterns; to look for longs when we have higher value placement on a downtrend day.

Another favorite is when price rallies strongly into the close only to have overlapping to lower value placement. A very good pattern to grab a short into the close or in the after hours.

Also note that this downtrend but with higher value placement occurs at a very key area of the double bottom low formed on January 22, 2008. JGB futures (Japanese government futures) has also fired 3 short signals for me this week. Perhaps we are seeing a possible bottom in place? I say this because the general public here in Tokyo is talking alot about JGB... seems to be the more popular contract amongst brokers, institutional sales traders, and the general public. Hence, I am sensing a potential turning point.

[Soultrader]

Todays video.

TL! Videos

[Soultrader]

Interesting chart here on ES.







Simple support and resistance levels. PDH = previous day high.

[MPTrader]

Soul, would u mind telling me if u take trades based on LVA or HVA or on the POC ? sometimes i am not very certain if i shd take at the POC as we all know that the market might just rotate ard the POC, but if we take trades at the edge of the value area, we might end up getting the bad side of the trade if it is a range day?

[ckait]

heres a thought , if the market opens below value and starts to trade twards VAL take a short trade there if sellers step in , if not take a short at the poc or at any point between if sellers show up. this works out best if it happens within the initial bal