[ant]

Very nice Dogpile.

[Dogpile]

thx ant, I am always too quick on exits to hang on for a bigger win...

this is a relatively newer strategy for me... build up a small ES position working the bid on a pullback --- then add with YM as it starts to come out of the flag pattern... I like this entry technique cause you will only have small longs on if it pulls back hard and full positions if it forms a normal type of flag. if it tests up to fill my long and then tanks-- well then I am shit out of luck....

my exits definitely need work.

[ant]

Man, I stepped away for a few minutes and when I came back I was stopped out. Oh well.

[Dogpile]

might be in a larger bear flag with ABC type of structure... this pattern is bearish and lines up with the 'cap' thesis... to be determined of course but something to be aware of...

http://bp1.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/.../ES+abc+up.png

[ant]

I hear you. I think my error was ignoring the prior balance area high at 1484.75. ES traded to 1484.50 and then turned around. My first scale out for +2 pts did not get filled.

[Dogpile]

went short and plan on holding it overnight for the 'cap' bias....

have worked off the 'pinball buy' and made a 'lower high' in the afternoon... could very well scratch it but have stop in place and hope the cap leads to a gap down. if not, so be it...

[ant]

The ES continued to balance between the low of 8/31 and the upper limit of the balance area at 1484.75. No directional move yet, but it's coming (because we know that imbalance follows balance). Today, I identified two trade opportunities, I got stopped out of one due to an error in my analysis (see http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...html#post18356) and missed a fill on another trade by a freakin' tick! You know how the saying goes, right?

The first trade should have been to fade the upper balance area limit at 1484.75 as there was a momentum divergence and no Volume follow-through (Dogpile hinted at that today). Instead of doing that, I actually went long one tick above yesterday's high at 1482.50, missed my first scale out point and got stopped out. In retrospect, my mistake was underestimating (ignoring) that resistance level that I have been discussing soooo much in this thread. I also violated a basic technical analysis maxim, i.e. support , once breached, becomes resistance. So that's what I learned from this losing trade.

The second trade setup was the same one that occurred yesterday and is described here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...html#post18343. The following chart illustrates the two trade opportunities that I had identified for 9/6, but botched up the execution on both. If I could only eliminate these unforced errors...



This closes the week out for me as I don't trade on Fridays. Hope you all have a great trading day tomorrow!

[Dogpile]

these overnight plays are lower odds because have to weather a big chunk of the European session which has odds to chop up and down for hours ahead of the Non Farm Payrolls... But reward is large if we trade down as I can then get a free ride on the data release and try for a big win. Pretty high % chance of stopping out -- but big reward potential makes up for this in my estimation.

the market should have rallied in the afternoon today if it was internally strong -- and it couldn't. Instead, it made a 'lower high'... this could be a large bear flag forming with continuation tomorrow. that is my hope anyway. if not, then I will stop out and life goes on.

as an aside, there is other headline type of risk involving brokerage firms closign their books last Friday and may need to fess up about losses -- or another financial problem circulating (hedge fund losses or bank/mortgage troubles).