[Dogpile]

drew chart of what I am looking at...

NQ+June+11+2007.bmp (image)

comments?

[walterw]

Originally Posted by Dogpile »

drew chart of what I am looking at...

NQ+June+11+2007.bmp (image)

comments?

Nice Dog.. in the case a C wave is forming, what would be your exact timing entry ? I saw in another thread you use par/sar for triggers.... thanks Walter.

[Dogpile]

I posted a new chart WalterW...

Dogpile Traders Laboratory


you can see from the fiboncacci grid on the chart that NQ rejected the move down -- it MORE than 'retraced' back up. the B wave should not have gone up that far if it were a B-wave retracement. therefore, it made the ABC pattern obsolete. there was potential for a lower high pattern to go with the tendency to touch previous day POC. however, when it broke the short-term parabolics to the upside, the play was then to go long for a play to the upside... at that point, NQ only had a 12-point range on the day vs usual 20-25pts...

re entries:

for NQ, I like using the 3-4 min parabolics because of the way NQ trades... it tends to really burst and run further than you think. the parabolics by defnition keep you from fading a move too early of what could be a parbolic move up or down. (I generally use the 2-3 min parabolic for my initial stop and put a limit out for 3-6 point profit objective).

I put multiple charts using parabolic acceleration factors of .02 and .03 up on my screen... I go with whichever one lines up with what I am thinking about the higher timeframe oscillators/pattern and the location of the trade.

[walterw]

Ok, I see... so when an ABC setup fails to continue, if the B pivot gets swinged you will take the next continuation on that direction... ? Had you try this on tick charts ?... thanks Walter.

[Dogpile]

I form a thesis for a pattern and then see how it progresses.

I will often still take the short side on the parabolic break if no POC touch and no strong trend day indications --- but will do so with smaller size and then reverse long if it makes an attempt down and peters out...

NQ swings can be pretty big. you can often read the higher timeframe pattern wrong and still make a few points just on a volatile price swing off the parabolics. other times the parabolics will trigger at the extreme of the swing and you lose a couple of points with just a couple of minutes of exposure.

today we had a reversal during 10:30am - 11:00am timeframe (period C -- 3rd 30-minute bar)... this B-C period is very common reversal period for NQ so you have to now think that the day may have made a significant swing low if you see a real nice push up off a c-period low.... then you can be ready to try a long off a mini bull-flag and play for a swing up.

[notouch]

Originally Posted by notouch »

Nison doesn't say it's necessary to wait for confirmation. Some traders do but some just wait for the close of the candlestick. It also depends on the strength of the pattern. A morning doji star, for example, is a very strong signal so waiting for confirmation may not be a good idea. A piercing pattern is also a strong signal, especially when it closes near the top of the previous candlestick's body. That doesn't necessarily mean the down move is over but it does point to strength ahead at least for a swing trade.

We now have a harami cross pattern on the daily YM charts which Nison calls "a powerful reversal pattern" i.e. bad news for longs. Looks like typical summer volatility.