[TinGull]

Today was a fabulous day looking at auction theory.

Yesterday we had a late day spike to downside, shown at the P period on the left hand profile. Noticing this late day spike downwards, we want to look at the open for continuation of that auction downward, or a reversal. So, this first chart is of the close yesterday and the open this morning. Notice how A period auctioned down, but failed to bring in more sellers. B period began to auction past the open, but couldn't manage 20 ticks. This is an immediate eye opener that the downward auction can not continue.




Fabulous trade location would've been inside the 12140-12160 range. A potential exit? Value Area Low from yesterday. Why? Chances are that if we're holding outside of value, people won't want to see price advertise back in value. They've worked this hard to bring it lower, why give that up?

As you can see, that trade location say at 12155 would've netted 70 points within 30 minutes.



Market Profile is an extremely useful tool to help locate amazing trade locations.

[TinGull]

To follow that up...what could we look for TOMORROW? Hindsight is always nice, but let's lay it out on the line here.

What we saw today was a rejection at the lows with balance at the top. This would lead some to think...higher tomorrow. Perhaps. I would look at it differently, though. Value placement was lower, though overlapping. BUT, value was placed lower than even on the heavy selloff we had the other day. This leads me to believe that we could auction lower still. IF we do auction higher or lower...The 12230-12270 area is going to act as a magnet. Price will most likely want to revert to the mean, which is right there. POC for today is ending up at 12241.



Notice there that the yellow lines on the right of the profiles (value) is moving lower. It's interesting to look at it that way. We didn't have enough fresh buying to move us further into value today, and that isn't a bullish sign.

[Soultrader]

Truly amazing stuff Tingull. I do enjoy your MP threads very much. How valuable MP is when you can observe value and not price. Clearly we are seeing lower value placement definitely not a bullish sign. For those without MP, they may assume strenghth due to the afternoon rally. Not a rallly imo.. but a short covering. Tomorrow will be exciting to see this market drop!

[TinGull]

Thanks Soul I enjoy making them!

Yesterday, you and I both spoke of the short covering during the day. What happened this morning? Sold off premarket very hard. Would've been nice to have a short in place overnight...even if just 1 car. Nice reward for sleeping hehe.

Tomorrow, I'd expect a little of the same. We certainly could see selling in the morning, but quite possibly a reversion to the mean. If that doesn't happen...the only other alternative is...TREND DAY!!! We could build new value much lower.

[TinGull]

Alright...because I'm getting to be a sucker for good trade location....check this one out. This was an area I was watching today. We had a little confluence of single prints, one being a buying tail and the other being a bunch of singles inside the overall profile. Notice with the green line marking those S/R levels on the profile, YM's price nailed that line and only dropped a few ticks below before buyers shut the selling down and lifted YM for almost 50 points.

[TinGull]

Originally Posted by TinGull »

To follow that up...what could we look for TOMORROW? Hindsight is always nice, but let's lay it out on the line here.

What we saw today was a rejection at the lows with balance at the top. This would lead some to think...higher tomorrow. Perhaps. I would look at it differently, though. Value placement was lower, though overlapping. BUT, value was placed lower than even on the heavy selloff we had the other day. This leads me to believe that we could auction lower still. IF we do auction higher or lower...The 12230-12270 area is going to act as a magnet. Price will most likely want to revert to the mean, which is right there. POC for today is ending up at 12241.

Just wanted to follow up on this and see what the high of the day was Friday...12254. Exactly in the middle of the range I had talked about before. Price wanted to get back to where it was last heavily traded at. The YM seems to be a perfect specimen when looking at price opening above or below a fat profile area and reverting back to that price. It happens soooo often.

[Soultrader]

Tin when you refer to a fat profile area, are you indicating a POC or an area of confluence?

[TinGull]

I'm referring to an area like the boxed in one on this pic...the area certainly includes the POC, but also the area around it. Basically "the mean" area.