[joshdance]

I intended to post the following on this thread earlier, but I only posted it in N's Eminis thread on Wednesday (1/25) after market close ( http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...tml#post137305 ). I'll attach the chart here that shows us the view at that time.

The premise was that perhaps after developing value for so long (about 5 days) in such a tight range (about 7 handles, give or take), and then moving north of that, that the market would return to test the real willingness of buyers to truly accept that as higher value than the year's prior established area of value (1270s). After all, the market moved up on fed news anyway, and did so in a sort of a panic buying frenzy, which sometimes must be retraced to see if it's for real.

And the market did not disappoint -- buyers strongly supported 1307 time and time again, despite the willingness of sellers to try to take it lower. 1307.50 was the sunday globex open, 1308 is the new VPOC for the year, and it's pretty much smack in the middle of the prior area of value. See the first chart for an example of how the market retested 1270s and found buyers.

This time it's quite different though, compared with the earlier example in the 1270s. The buying off of the 1307 did not have nearly the conviction that it did earlier in January. The market just did not seem truly willing to pay up, and given how many times 07 held, and how important the 1305-1311 zone has been, if the market were truly super bullish, I would have expected it to buy, and buy fast, and buy heavy. But it didn't. So I'm a little cautious about the direction from here; bulls have the upper hand technically (just look at the year so far), however, the sentiment on Friday did not have the same bullish energy that I have seen recently.

Lastly, I'm not a big delta volume watcher, but perhaps it's noteworthy that a retracement of 80% in price (1329 to 1307, from a low of 1302) only resulted in about a 50% retracement in delta volume.