[wynnasuju]

Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD
Friday, February 17, 2012 - 13:30

Analysts at Commerzbank claim that British pound may rise higher versus the greenback testing 200-day MA at $1.5919.

The specialists note, however, that sterling’s advance will be limited, if not by this level, then by the next resistance at $1.5967 and $1.6016 (55-week MA).

According to the bank, support for the pair GBP/USD lies at $1.5603/1.5580 (55-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement).


Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

Be successful with FBS

[wynnasuju]

Euro strengthened on Greek bailout news
Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 10:00

The single currency went up versus the greenback erasing earlier decline and reached 3-month maximum against Japanese yen as the euro-zone finance ministers agreed on a second bailout package for Greece saving the nation from default in March.

The package includes a 53.5% write-down for Greek bondholders – it’s a bigger trade-off from the nation’s private creditors than initially expected. Debt-swap bonds will have a coupon of 2% in 2014, 3% in 2015-2020 and 4.3% after that. The ECB President Mario Draghi expressed his approval of the deal.

Euro shorts are covered now. The pair EUR/USD opened around $1.3250 and started sliding lower as the press conference was constantly delayed. The market players were pretty sure that there would be an agreement and there were enough longs on an intraday basis and these longs kept getting squeezed out, the longer the decision was delayed. After the announcement euro made 70-pip spike up. Currently the pair came close to the opening levels as stop-losses were all done.

Analysts at Credit Suisse claim that euro will likely be capped as although “short-covering is supporting the euro, this much was within expectations”. In addition, EUR/USD will get under pressure due to improving US economy. The specialists think that the pair will trade in range between $1.3150 and $1.3350 for the rest of the global day and between $1.3050 and $1.3350 during the coming week.


Chart. H1 EUR/USD

Euro strengthened on Greek bailout news // FBS Markets Inc.

Be successful with FBS

[wynnasuju]

UBS: dollar’s long-term advance against euro will go on
Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 10:00

Analysts at UBS claimed that the single currency will continue declining versus the greenback in the longer term from the record maximum at $1.6038 reached in July 2008.

The specialists think that US dollar will break its negative relationship with oil prices as the United States become more independent of foreign energy supply due to the development of shale-gas deposits and an increase in domestic oil production.


Chart. Daily EUR/USD

UBS: dollar

Be successful with FBS

[wynnasuju]

More comments about euro’s outlook
Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 11:30

ING: the Greek deal might have bought a couple of months' worth of stability to the euro-zone sovereign-debt markets. The pair EUR/USD may go up to test 2012 maximum at $1.3320 and rise to $1.3430/50.

Barclays Capital: the risk of Greece’s disorderly default reduced for at least a few quarters. Never the less, there still are the implementation risks. In addition, there are near-term risks associated with early elections and rise of political opposition.

Commerzbank: the skepticism about the euro is justified even after euro area’s finance ministers agreed to provide Greece with the second bailout. That isn’t positive for euro. The large majority of market players are finding it hard to believe that Greece will get through to 2020 without a further default.

BNP Paribas: Greek agreement won't support euro much. Many traders would like to sell euro on the rallies. All the same, if the agreement really does remove the risk of a Greek default markets will be looking to fund riskier bets with a suitable currency such as euro. As a result, the European currency is doomed to remain under pressure.


График. Daily EUR/USD


More comments about euro

Be successful with FBS

[wynnasuju]

Deutsche Bank, UBS: forecasts for USD/JPY
Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 12:15

Analysts at Deutsche Bank think that the greenback may resume its decline versus Japanese yen. In their view, the effects of the latest round of easing conducted by the Bank of Japan will fade. Last week the Bank of Japan added 10 trillion to it's now 65 trillion yen quantitative easing program leaving the benchmark interest rate at the record low of 0.1%.

The specialists claim that USD/JPY may decline from the current maximums in the above 79.50 back to 75 yen area. According to the bank, Japan’s external investment position is large and growing, so its current-account balance will support yen’s strength for some time. Currency effects from Japan's shifting trade dynamics are being overplayed and the country will probably return to a trade surplus this year. The only way to prevent such outcome is additional stimulus from Japan’s monetary authorities.

Analysts at UBS, however, don’t share the view of Deutsche Bank. The specialists reduced their 1- and 3-month forecasts for Japanese yen from 77 yen per dollar to 80 and 85 yen per dollar. As the reason for the downward revision the specialists cited easing conducted by the BOJ.


Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Deutsche Bank, UBS: forecasts for USD/JPY // FBS Markets Inc.

Be successful with FBS

[wynnasuju]

BoE minutes coming: watch the pound
Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - 07:45

Today the market’s looking forward to the release of the Bank of England’s February meeting minutes (9:30 a.m. GMT). The minutes will unveil how the central bank’s 9-member Monetary Policy Committee votes on the expansion of asset purchase program by 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) to 325 billion pounds this month.

The consensus forecast is that the decision was unanimous. The experts, however, don’t rule out the possibility of 1-2 dissenting votes from the hawks against more QE.

The BoE decided to conduct additional quantitative easing in order to help weak UK economy: Britain’s revived Q4 GDP figures which are released on Friday will likely confirm that the nation’s economy contracted by 0.2% in the final 3 months of 2012 (q/q).
BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean claimed that despite the news that Greece will get the second bailout, serious risks remain and the debt crisis won’t be over. Such situation will hurt Britain hitting its exports and finance and affecting its consumer and business confidence. The official was also worried about the fate of other peripheral European economies.

On the one hand, it’s necessary to note that some positive consumption and housing data have been released so far, so the BoE may improve its fundamental outlook for the UK economy. In this case pound will be poised to strengthen. On the other hand, cautious tone may signal that the door is open to expand the central bank’s asset purchase program beyond 325 billion pounds – such outcome would increase bearish pressure on sterling.

Since the beginning of the year the pair GBP/USD consolidated between $1.5680 and $1.5930. Analysts at Lloyds say that sterling won’t be able to rise above $1.6000 versus the greenback in the near term. Specialists at Commerzbank think that the pair may test 200-day MA and then slide back to $1.5645.


Chart. Daily GBP/USD

BoE minutes coming: watch the pound // FBS Markets Inc.

Be successful with FBS

[wynnasuju]

Nomura: USD/JPY forecast revised up
Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - 12:15

Analysts at Nomura revised up their forecast for USD/JPY from 75 to 79 yen by the end of the first quarter of 2012. The forecasts for the end of Q2 and the year-end were left unchanged at 80 and 81 yen consequently.

The specialists claim that odds that the greenback will resume its decline decreased due to the Bank of Japan’s additional quantitative easing, better US macroeconomic data and easing tensions in the euro area.

Nomura draws investors’ attention to the fact that Japanese central bank decided to increase investment in the government bonds with maturity of 1-2 years. This would cap the possibility of 2-year yield growth. As a result, the yield differential between 2-year US and Japanese securities will increase encouraging USD/JPY. In addition, internal capital flows also point at yen’s gradual depreciation.


Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Nomura: USD/JPY forecast revised up // FBS Markets Inc.

Be successful with FBS

[wynnasuju]

Barclays Capital expects USD/JPY to consolidate
Friday, February 24, 2012 - 07:30

Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that the greenback will consolidate between 78.50 and 80.50 yen ahead of the US February jobs report which is released on March 9.

The specialists think that after the pair USD/JPY has made such an impressive progress this month rising from 76 to 80.50 yen it currently lacks strong indicators for further advance, so the market will likely stand still ahead of the labor market data. According to the bank, the risk of the Federal Reserve announcing another round of quantitative easing is low.


Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Barclays Capital expects USD/JPY to consolidate // FBS Markets Inc.

Be successful with FBS