[FBS_Official]

BNP Paribas: USD/JPY may climb to 85 yen

Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the downside correction of the pair USD/JPY has stopped already at 83.40. If the greenback gets above 83.65 versus Japanese yen, it will be able to strengthen rising towards selling offers at 83.80.

The specialists expect some consolidation after the pair’s active growth during the last several days, though they don’t think that such move will last long. In their view, momentum for the greenback is bullish and US currency may climb to 85 yen during the next few weeks.

According to the BNP Paribas, the Bank of Japan has no choice but to keep the interest rates at the record low levels to encourage investors to use yen as the funding currency for carry trades.

[FBS_Official]

Pimco: yen’s repatriation will exceed market’s expectations

Analysts at Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s biggest bond fund, claim that Japan will repatriate more funds than markets expect as the country needs to finance its reconstruction after the devastating earthquake and tsunami.

The specialists believe that Japan will also be forced to increase borrowing and monetize some part of its debt to fund the rebuilding that, according to the estimates, will require $300 billion.

The forecasts that Japan will issue a large amount of debt in coming years are mostly based on the experience of the Kobe quake in 1995, though now the country’s debt situation seems to be much more complicated, notes Pimco.

The strategists underline that the greenback, the European currency and Japanese yen are currently facing many difficulties, so they advise investors to borrow money in these currencies to invest in the better-performing emerging markets.

[FBS_Official]

Barclays Capital: bearish view on USD/CAD

Technical analysts at Barclays Capital claim that the pair USD/CAD came to the target levels at 0.9680/65. In their view, this area will hold the initial bearish attack. As long as USD/CAD is trading below resistance at 0.9745, the bank has negative outlook for the greenback. If US currency falls below 0.9665, it will be poised for a decline to 0.9600

[FBS_Official]

Societe Generale: technical forecast for EUR/USD

Analysts at Societe Generale claim that the pair EUR/USD may still fall to Monday’s minimum at 1.4020 and then to the support in the 1.3755/1.3720 area before bouncing to the new 2011 maximums. When the single currency overcomes resistance at 1.4250/55, it will get chance to advance to November 2009 maximum at 1.5145 breaking through resistance at 1.4580.

[FBS_Official]

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

Weekly GBP/USD

During the past week the British currency didn’t manage to renew maximums and finished the trade lower, in the 1.6100 area.

The Ichimoku Cloud is rising and the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen still hold the “golden cross” in place moving upwards. At the same time it’s necessary to note that the prices have broken through the Standard line.


Daily GBP/USD
After the prices firstly surged to 1.6400 and then returned to the 1.6000 area during the period from March 17 to 25, the pair GBP/USD behaved modestly last week: the prices edged up to 1.6100.

The pound’s rate caught Kumo but closed the week above the upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud, while the Cloud itself narrowed – the Preceding lines are moving towards each other. All lines of the Indicators are directed horizontally. It’s necessary to note that Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have almost merged together.

The market is in the stated of uncertainty. The prices will likely keep crawling along the Senkou Span B.

[FBS_Official]

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY

There are no doubts now that the currency intervention of G7 nations was successful. During the past week the bulls have worked hard: the pair USD/JPY added more than 250 pips.

The Ichimoku Cloud stopped ext6ending downwards. The Tenkan-sen went up. The lagging Chinkou Span has approached the price chart preparing to cross it bottom-up.


Daily USD/JPY


Tenkan-sen has gone sharply up, the narrow Ichimoku Cloud has turned upwards, while the Chinkou Span has broken up through the prices chart.

So, there are enough positive signals to suggest that the bulls will be leading this week as well.

[FBS_Official]

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

Weekly USD/CHF

US dollar kept rebounding versus Swiss franc from the record minimum in the 0.8890 area. All lines of the Indicator switched to the horizontal mode. The Kumo stopped enlarging downwards.

The bears are a bit used up. We don’t expect any strong moves of the market.


Daily USD/CHF


Senkou Span B keeps moving sideways, while the Senkou Span A hints at some rebound.

Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have formed the “golden cross” and the Standard line went up. The Lagging line has come close to the price chart.

The bears are beginning to lose their powers. The bulls, however, haven’t restored their powers after the decline seen so far, though the market’s risk sentiment starts improving. It’s too early to speak about the trend reversal, but the pair USD/CHF may continue correcting upwards towards the Cloud.

[FBS_Official]

Sakakibara: USD/JPY may rise to 90 yen per dollar

Former Japanese currency policy official Eisuke Sakakibara claims that Japanese yen will keep weakening during the next few months. The economist believes that the currency may decline to 90 yen per dollar.

Sakakibara expressed concerns about foreign money leaving the country in the wake of a massive earthquake and subsequent nuclear crisis.

The policymaker is known as Mr Yen s when he was a vice minister for international affairs at the finance ministry Sakakibara was leading Japan's intervention to curb the yen's appreciation.