[Office rat]

you are right, but we will fix that so it will be weekly

[Office rat]

EUR – growing potential waning

In the first three weeks of the year the single currency lost 1.2% against USD. EUR/USD decline is a consequence of US market weakness, which is a leading indicator of the economic recovery pace. World markets remained pessimistic in the third week of the current year. Asian markets are falling for over ten days, oil and metal prices go down. Company reports of many firms and banks for the fourth quarter of 2009 does not inspire market participants either.
Results and Current Situation
Technical picture of EUR trading in the last quarter of 2009 showed that market participants were not ready to buy EUR above1.47-1.48 area. As a result, the fourth quarter trend signaled January EUR/USD decline towards 1.4150-1.4250 area. Following the results of the last year we see, that buying of currencies dependant on raw materials export has brought AUD/USD and NZD/USD to the levels, above which growth could not be objectively justified . Last week AUD/USD could not break through the 0.92-0.93 area, which would open way towards 0.95 level, the market sank till 0.90 instead. NZD/USD has not passed 0.72-0.73 area and finished the week below 0.71 near 0.70.
In the end of the year GBP/USD had support of GBP buying for EUR, which was reflected in the EUR/GBP trend Nevertheless, last week EUR/GBP could not get hold above 1.62-1.63, this would propel the market toward the 1.65. The market closed at 1.61 USD/CAD has not fallen relative of the1.0300 level, which would signal further way down to 1.0200 and 1.0150. The market has grown above 1.0550 on oil market decline.
Still the tendency of major currencies decline had more to do with JPY appreciation, rather than with USD growth. The 1 quarter of the year is a traditional repatriation period of for the JPY. JPY has growth against all currencies in the market. For the week USD/JPY has fallen from 0.91 below 0.90, EUR/JPY sank from 130.50 till 127.00, and GBP/JPY from 147.60 below 145.00. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY also lowered.

Expectations, Prognosis

In the January 25-29 period currency market will remain pressured through JPY strengthening and doubts concerning EUR growth. Corporate reports will continue to play the role of an expectations factor on the market. In the beginning of the new trading week we can see some potential for EUR/USD recovery, still in second half of the week further decline is most probable.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1.3850-1.4188 potential decline
GBP/USD – 1.5888-1.6231 potential decline
USD/CHF – 1.0331-1.0688 potential decline
USD/JPY – 0.8831-0.9188 potential decline
AUD/USD – 0.8831-0.9131 potential decline
USD/CAD – 1.0450-1.0731 potential decline
Brent – 69.88-73.88, potential decline

Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by Office rat »

you are right, but we will fix that so it will be weekly

So when you said on 10/20 that you would fix that, what exactly did you mean?

Maybe quarterly is what you meant to say and not weekly?

I really don't see the point of saying to expect this weekly and then you just randomly (and I stress randomly) appear with some text.

[Office rat]

EUR below 2008 closing level

In January currency market was focused on financial problems of European countries and their budget deficits on the first place. Late last week we have learnt that Standard & Poor's does not count British banks among the most low risks banking systems / Weakness of major American stock indexes and oil prices below $75 a barrel boosted USD growth by the end of the third week of January . US fourth quarter GDP data also contributed to dollar's advance. GDP has growth 5,7% against the third quarter of 2009 year on year, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce reported. This numbers turned out much better, than analysts expected.

Results and Current Situation

In 2009 the major trend was appreciation of currencies dependant of raw materials export (AUD and NZD) and USD decline. This tendency has created a misleading picture of EUR strength. In fact AUD and NZD were also often bought for EUR. Absence of objective basis for EUR/USD growth in November resulted in market going below 1.50. Technical trend of the last quarter of 2009 - lowering from 1.4350 - sent EUR/USD towards the 2008 closing - 1.40. It was only owing to EUR/GBP cross rate trade against EUR, that GBP/USD held near the 1.6150 -1.6350 area in January . EUR/GBP decline dynamics did not reflect the USD growth, but was a EUR depreciation factor, this allowed GBP/USD to stay at 1.60 by the end of January trade.
Currencies dependant on raw materials export - AUD and NZD - declined from key levels. AUD closed below 0.90 at 0. 8835, аnd NZD finished the month at 0.70. Closing above 0.88 and 0.70 came as a result of EUR/AUD EUR/NZD cross rate lowering and gold sinking below 1100 an ounce. USD/CAD grew to 1.0705 on oil decline.
January EUR/USD closing shows, that for the period from the beginning of 2009 USD added 0,78%, from 1.3960 to 1.3850. USD appreciation is not yet big enough for EUR/USD to fall substantially in the first February week.

Expectations, Prognosis

In the February 1-5 period currency market will have a hard time choosing further direction. Market participant might wish to take profit on some long USD positions in the beginning of the month. Fourth quarter financial statements of banks and companies will become a major factor influencing trading decisions. Traders will pay special attention to JPY movements. In January USD/JPY kept moving downward and closed in 0.90 filter between 0.9012 and 0.9031.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline
GBP/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline
USD/CHF – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth
USD/JPY – 0.8731-0.9188 attempts to grow, potential decline
AUD/USD – 8750-9088 attempts to grow, potential decline
USD/CAD – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth
Brent – 68.88-73.50 consolidation

[Office rat]

Currency Market Review 2/06/10 - 2/12/10

EUR below 2008 closing
The first February week ended with considerable EUR lowering and USD growth. Banks' buying USD against EUR, AUD and NZD in the end of the week was spurred by 5% decline of indexes on Lisbon and Madrid exchanges. Continuing concerns over swelling budget deficits and sovereign debts of EU member countries bolsters banks' appetite for USD. Currency market participants don't take EUR for a serious alternative to USD. Markititraxx Europe Index climbing to the 9-week maximum has further propelled USD against EUR. Michal Gomez, a senior vice president at Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Co) one of the largest investment companies in the world, advices to keep away from EUR, Euro zone and some of the developing European countries’ currencies.
Results and Current Situation
During February 1- 5 trading week EUR has lost 1.44% against USD. EUR/USD slid two figures lower from 1.3850 level to 1.3650 by session closing Friday. Increased USD buying resulted in lowering of the currencies dependant on raw materials export, AUD and NZD. They have lost 100 points. At the same time CAD remained relatively strong against USD. USD/CAD growth for the week comprised 10 points. CAD received support form the oil market, which managed to stay above the $70 level.
GBP turned out to be the biggest looser last week. By trade closing on February 5th GBP has lost 2.15%, which was reflected in GBP/USD decline of 345 points, from 1.5975 to 1.5630.
The major factor of last week's trade was a tendency of decline not only against USD but also against JPY. Growing interest in buying USD against other currencies could not hinder JPY appreciation. By the end of the week JPY added 0.034% against USD. USD/JPY has gone from 0.9025 down to 0.8935. The general JPY growth against other currencies in the market surpassed USD growth. This factor is a strong signal of further weakening of EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD.

Expectations, Prognosis

In the February 8-12 period currency market will remain pressured by increased buying of Japanese and American currencies . Possible attempts of EUR, GBP and other currencies buying in the first half of the week will be countered with large JPY purchases by cross rates. JPY buying will intensify EUR decline and USD growth.
Major currency pairs range:
EUR/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline
GBP/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline
USD/CHF – 1,0669-1,0888, growth
USD/JPY – 0,8831-0,8969, declining consolidation
AUD/USD – 0,8331-0,8769, decline
USD/CAD – 1,0631-1,0869 growing consolidation
Brent – 68,88-71,50 consolidation, range
Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

[brownsfan019]

The weekly analysis guy is back!

[Office rat]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

The weekly analysis guy is back!

Does it make you frustrate?

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by Office rat »

Does it make you frustrate?

I'm just pointing out that your thread entitled 'weekly analysis' has been anything but weekly, even after you re-confirmed a 2nd time that it would be weekly.

So whatever your goal is here, it's really not providing much use to anyone as your updates are in fact completely random and if anyone was silly enough to rely on this, they would have to wait hoping to see you appear again at some random point in the future.

Maybe you should start a new thread entitled 'Completely Random Analysis'.