[TheGoldAndOilGuy]

DB,

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

Happy Trading
Chris

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by TheGoldAndOilGuy »

DB,

I completely agree with you opinions and outlook. My article simply showed how we are currentin showing similar chart patterns as we did on most other bottoms. I'm not saying its a bottom as we cannot have a bottom until the banks get sorted out. But this is a good place for some long term cash to be put to work for those who are not active traders. We could get one more leg lower before things go higher, but some of the dividend funds are paying 10-17% dividends making them a pretty good investment for the average Joe if they want to average down and earn some dividend income on top of what ever gains happen in the next 4-5 years.

Most of us on here are active traders so waiting for a bottom and taking advantage of it using leveraged funds like TNA, FAS etc.. once things turn around gives us tones of time and opportunities.

Happy Trading
Chris

On the other hand, the dividends may not and will not likely hold if prices fall further. Therefore, I can't concur that this is a "good place to buy".

But then, it's not my money.

[minoo]

Everything was negative today again, Played the Morning Gap close and than short on to Globex low, pretty much the same drill which I did last week. Though my expectation have grown towards the 'Bear Market Rally'. Waited right till the end and than went long on S&P 741.75 after big-brother NYSE close and the Algos started to kick in Buy Progs. This is the second time I have taken this contradictory action from my running Bear Market Trading Plan

After the market close I went quickly browsing for some info on 'Bear Market Rally' to may be justify my actions, results to be or maybe reason for a good night sleep, whatever .. . blah blah .... blah .. .

I came across this excellent site http://dshort.com/
Absolute worth checking out, short briefs and very intuitive charts on below topics:
-Four Bad Bears (also check the CPI adjusted chart below)
-Bottoming out process (brilliant interactive chart for base comparision)
-Regression to trend (what can I say .. .)

Got to review these charts again with fresh mind and add to journal some stats

I am not sure of my closing action or of my swing targets yet, though scale in orders are in place; Got to take responsibility and play it out in the same consistent style.
May have jump the gun.

Goodnight All
Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2217507MRpn8

[minoo]

Another good & dare I say timely article by Andre of MarketTurningPoints.com

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9036.html

I like his take on Projections and Breadth
(MACD on NYSE A/D line ?, something to check out here .. .. .)

Enjoy Minoo

http://greatday.com/v.html?2218g07MRpn8

Note: A better version of the same was found on below website
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=12667&pv=1

[DbPhoenix]

Apart from the various newsletters and pundits and gurus, what does your own analysis tell you? Looking at the chart, and only the chart, without any indicators or calculations of any sort,

1. what do you see as the next level of support, if we fail to rally here, and why?

2. what is the likelihood that we will rally and why?

3. if we do rally, how far do you think we might get and why?

I don't mean for this to sound like a quiz, but I'm much more interested in what you think than in the opinions of the usual professional technician.

One other point. Chopping up charts in order to support a conclusion at which one has already arrived is easy to do and common and dangerous. Each bottom is unique, and one must evaluate what is happening in his own market in his own time in order to determine when and where and how the bottoming process is unfolding. There then remains the equally and possibly more difficult task of deciding what to do about it.

[minoo]

Hi Db

On the intraday side I have now become an cautious and reluctant Bear and will go grazing more willingly with the bulls

I think the bear has made enough headway on the south path for the time being
In market nothing remain in unidirection so far we had a good run in this direction

So its simply time / cycle for me this week to be more contradictory and look out for change. 740 is a good area for me to look for an rebounce (anticipating Volatility as well)
Simply put, I will scalp the short side and swing the long side

Below is another good article by Ray he uses MP, Delta and Normalised Vol to give an perspective on the present Bear's stance
http://www.greenfaucet.com/print/6188#

Enjoy Minoo

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by minoo »

I think the bear has made enough headway on the south path for the time being

Any particular reason?

[minoo]

Thanks for asking Db

Just anticipating an corrective cycle / phase to this Bear run
I would say time and cycle from an area
but be aware of the News & Volatility

Best thing for me is not to form any BIAS but be clear about my preferences

As I said earlier I will Scalp with the Bear South of 740 and Swing with the Bulls North of 740, and implement an no trade zone around it.

Hope this helps

Good trading to you all
Minoo