[SunTrader]

Originally Posted by minoo »

Road to Nowhere Dated: 11/11/11

Bear leads road to no where, over 13 years and we are around the same spot 1300 (S&P500) .....

When someone bought or sold matters. Not where the market was as some random point in the past.

Me, I am a day trader so I care only where each day trades, range/volatility wise.

[minoo]

Bob The best way I can help is with an simple system example

(Sun this is mostly to do with Investment or Pension related, Day trading (prefer Swing) is I do when I need to hedge my current running positions so do not loose out much when market is correcting or insured if correction may lead to change)

Using your Big Picture scenario & analysis one can decide which Assets they would like to have exposure to for both Bull and Bear style of trading. Intermarket Relation may get disrupt due to world geo political news situations but eventually they will correct (to mean or trend direction)

I refer you to this recent article from Doug Short
Current Market Snapshot
So it seems S&P & Indices are just in Positive Territory, Big Picture is very important
Atleast every other week one must study their monthly charts of different assests (Indices, Commodities, Agriculture, Energy, 'Dollar & Bonds & Yields', etc)

Dollar mostly inversely proportional to other Assets, if you find an asset rising or stable when Dollar is strong than you have found possible Bull Streak Assest

Currently the Precious Metal Sector shows that streak, but with on going Bull Phase one struggles to step in as prices are already high. One needs to average-in this Bull Asset during intermediate correction phase and scale-in during the Bull resumption phase.

In your system you need to have your charts for the big picture and intermediate cycle as an investor and do things accordingly per your defined system; Where I fail is when I let news or media and current affairs influence (delay) my decisions and not use appropriate size stops according to present volatility. What I have found is price (weekly & monthly) already reflects the current world and political condition, so must not on top of that doubt what I hear (news) and simply act to adhere objectively per what I see in my defined system

Bobs Bull Bear System
I will futher simply the above monthly chart for yourself and define a Simple Bull / Bear System using readily available indicators
In the Below chart we have now two things only:
Moving Ave (Exponential 13) any other of your short term line)
RSI (or any of your favorite oscillator MACD, Stoch, CCI, etc)

Short System Description
Two consecutive closes above or below EMA 13, with RSI cross at 50 confirming.

(One can add to the above for accumulation, when price nears or touches the EMA (intermediate correction) and close above it, with RSI > 50)

Refer to chart or create your own and see so far has the system tested fine and what is happening currently ? ?

Note The current month is still in running & also note the Gaps (orange line) above and below.

Hope this helps (sorry in a hurry to go out with the kids no time to proof read now)

Regards Minoo

[minoo]

Yes, You can apply the same system on Gold too, with a little bit of modification for the parabolic rise and intermediate cycle support

I would add / replace here is type of Moving Average to accomodate the volatility and parabolic nature of the instrument.
Intead of EMA use or add Weighted MA (dashed line) refer to the chart
This will show better lows of the Intermediate-Cycle at the Weighted MA.

RSI has OB and OS levels set to 80 and 20 respectively

Another Tip: During Volatility be particularly aware of outside or inside Bars (refer previous chart to see them at the volatile phase) as you all want to partake in the Bull phase (for accumulation) than first lot at cross of the hi of the inside bar.

Trend
Yes this are monthly charts so higher-high and lower-high of each Bar could be consider in your trend definition (Remember, This is for your Big Picture) So when you get lower highs and lower lows above your line than you know what to do (lock in profit, stop out, etc action) a good addition to your system!

Its just past midnight here in London, So Good night to you All Folks

Enjoy Minoo