[Soultrader]

Market Analysis for August 8, 2008 taking a look at both the Nikkei and ES.

Starting with a daily chart, notice the divergence. ES went to break the lows in July while Nikkei made a higher low. Some strength for the nikkei on a daily timeframe.





MP chart on Nikkei shows value placement overlapping to higher with opening intraday reversal for a decent trend day. Volume is also highest in 3 weeks showing strength, although afternoon opening rally seemed like shorts were scrambling to cover with momentum traders hopping on. Towards 2:30ish pm we did some some distribution but signs of accumulation exists towards the close. Im sensing further rally next week and would be interesting to see how strong we can hit the 13500 and 13660 mark, two levels of potential resistance.



The key to the Nikkei for intaday trading has been extreme patience and discipline trading around well established S&R levels. Low risk trades are born applying a sniper like trading discipline. Todays low can be seen in the support zone posted in the mp chart above.



Taking a look at ES. Short term uptrend on the dailies with successful higher lows. 3rd attempt at the 1290ish mark failed yesterday with clear demand drying up at those levels. However, Nikkei divergence and today's Asian markets action is making me sense a possibility for a breakout of that level. Early July volume and price action is showing strength in the background from a technical perspective.

1275 - 1276 level will be a key pivot for me today. MP chart is showing value placement within the upper portion of the range regardless of the late afternoon break down. I have seen bounces occur after patterns like this so any price acceptance above 1275ish will have me trading on the long side only.



Last chart on ES showing retracement at key fib line (yesterdays low). Also note the confluence area of VAL for August 5th. Another potential support line if we come back to that level. So looking more on the long side today until the markets prove otherwise.



Happy trading all.

[ammo]

very generous post,thanks soulT