[Hlm]

Originally Posted by MC »

I'm going to bow out of the discussion. I'm expending too many of my limited braincells.

LOL...I wasn't trying to be tricky or anything. I have just seen this topic get messy because of people having different definitions. Hopefully a few more people will jump in here and you can jump back in and comment some more.

[james_gsx]

I voted Yes, all is known in advance.

That doesn't mean anyone knows what it is, or that it's unpredictable. And I think it's that reason that people think it is predictable, that leads them to losing money and searching for the holy grail. At the end of the day, I really don't care. If I make good trades and make money, the market can do whatever it wants. If the market wants to explode, chances are one of my signals will pop up before it does, and vice versa. It's just a matter of if I see the signal and take the trade.

I guess you could say I'm kind of in between the two descriptions, but I picked the first one because more people had already clicked that one

[jasont]

Prediction Definition: The act of foretelling; also, that which is foretold; prophecy.

From the above dictionary meaning, prediction states that you would say what is going to happen and that which you said must become true. If that is the case then those who predict would never sustain a loss. In fact they would be on the right side of the market every time. They wouldn't take a long position if the market was to go lower.

I will admit that sometimes I have a strong feeling the market will do X over the Y period of time and possibly turn at Z. However I don't think those are based as much upon future predictions as they are past patterns. Spending thousands of hours watching charts you begin to pick up on certain ways the market trades. Yet how can I have those strong feelings when I believe the market trades differently every day and is why I enjoy it?

I get the feeling this thread has turned from "who believes that market can be predicted?" to "what does predicting the market mean?"

[james_gsx]

If I feel I have predicted the market and I get excited over what I think will be an awesome trade. I'm wrong 99% of the time and I feel like an ass.

[Bearbull]

PURE WYCKOFF: Learn to aniticipate THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE with the info. in front (within the context of previous price action (NOT PREDICT), this then allows room for adopting a flexible mindset, ability to discern changes in supply/demand pressure on an ongoing basis and go from a bullish to bearish & vice versa , stance without hesitation.

[firewalker]

Interesting debate going on, but I'd hate to dwell on semantics too long. Although it's indeed necessary to clear the air to know for sure what we are talking about. So I'm going to try and be more specific about this. When you choose option (1), you are basically saying that now, in the present, the future course and path of the market has already been determined beforehand. Whatever happens next, whatever news comes out, whatever happens to the state of the economy or business conditions, it's all irrelevant because the market has "a plan" and it will not deviate from that.

Originally Posted by MC »

Very true, almost anyone can pick a direction correctly (though they end up making things harder than they are).

Picking direction is easy. I said about a month ago that the market would turn very soon and head towards the March lows, which it did. But that's easy. Giving exact times and dates and exact price levels, that's a different feat and something I have not yet seen a lot of people, except on occasion. Making one bet is easy, but doing this continuously is a different thing.

Hlm, have you read the interview with Gann? That's the sort of predicting I'm talking about.

Originally Posted by MC »

You might be able to park a H1 Hummer in a 1 car garage a few times but it's not worth the stress. Don't bother trying it if you like sanity and your paint job. That's what people are doing with super tight stops. If you need to run that tight a stop you're playing outside your accounts risk tolerance and/or you don't fully accept the risk of the trade. Widen the stops and park it in a 2 car garage, it's way less stressful and surely more consistant.

Have to disagree here, if you get the entry right, you can have a very tight stop. My stop is about 10 points on the YM and 2 points on the NQ. If I get stopped out, price almost always continues in the opposite direction, so I was wrong (but the stop was right).

Originally Posted by Hlm »

Well, I predict that the market is going to go up at least x amount of points so I will buy here. In other words, explain a situation where the trader is doing no prediction whatsoever.

Perhaps adding the 'time factor' would make the prediction a lot more interesting. It's not that difficult to see that price is often attracted my S/R levels, so if you're saying "price will continue in that direction up till point x", than you might have a very high probability of knowing so, but can you determine how long it will take, how price will react when it gets there, and can you draw the course of price along the way?

Originally Posted by MC »

I'm saying it's possible but it's nothing but luck if someone predicts to the tick a high or low. It's not a consistantly repeatable, bankable feat. IMO one should acknowledge what they DON'T know above all else.

Doing it one time might be luck, but what if someone managed to do it each and every day?

Originally Posted by james_gsx »

I voted Yes, all is known in advance.

That doesn't mean anyone knows what it is, or that it's unpredictable. And I think it's that reason that people think it is predictable, that leads them to losing money and searching for the holy grail. At the end of the day, I really don't care. If I make good trades and make money, the market can do whatever it wants. If the market wants to explode, chances are one of my signals will pop up before it does, and vice versa. It's just a matter of if I see the signal and take the trade.

I don't care much neither, but I still think it's an interesting topic worth exploring. Albeit perhaps from a more philosophical point of view, than a pure "how to make profit in trading" pov.

Originally Posted by jasont »

I get the feeling this thread has turned from "who believes that market can be predicted?" to "what does predicting the market mean?"

Indeed. I hope with now that I've added the time element this will help in determining exactly what predicting is.

Originally Posted by Bearbull »

PURE WYCKOFF: Learn to anticipate THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE with the info. in front (within the context of previous price action (NOT PREDICT),

Bearbull, I'm actually more biased towards that kind of belief. I'd like to make that clear because it's not because I started this thread that I have some sort of fixed opinion on any of this. I'm open to suggestions

[MC]

Originally Posted by firewalker »

Have to disagree here, if you get the entry right, you can have a very tight stop. My stop is about 10 points on the YM and 2 points on the NQ. If I get stopped out, price almost always continues in the opposite direction, so I was wrong (but the stop was right).

Doing it one time might be luck, but what if someone managed to do it each and every day?

Responding to the 2 replies to my quotes...

10 YM points I would consider a realistic stop in the context of being placed outside a balancing period. When I say tight stop, I'm referring to the people that will get long at a test of the 50ma and have a 3 point stop. That kind of thing, which I've tried myself early on before I saw S&R in the right light.

Now that I'm given your criteria for stops, and with my addition that one must understand how the market moves and balances. Assuming one has tuned their psych properly I would say YES the market can be very VERY predictable.

Realizations I've come to, though I am still developing the psych to exploit my knowledge.
1) Big money runs the show, follow their lead. You will profit by trading with them, not against them.
2) The market moves on trending and balancing periods. Prey on the trending periods since they are fueled by emotions. Use the balancing periods to watch what's unfolding or to get an entry near the congestion lows in the direction of the prior direction (assuming there's been no trend changing professional activity).

[LiggerPig]

If you believe the market can be predicted you have an incentive to learn how to predict where and when the market will move to.
That incentive can be an excellent motivation for traders, or alternatively, could be a destructive journey into randomness.
Personally, I've found the effort to learn to predict market moves very rewarding. It gives you a sense of being at one with your market, of being in control and understanding it's needs.

To be of use to you as a trader your method of prediction needs to be reliable, consistently profitable and enhance your performance. Your risk management must work with your method to tell you when you are wrong. This is extremely important.
It's all too easy to become over-confident having the market perform twists and turns at your every command but a momentary lapse, a short period of defiance, a bad mood swing, etc. can see you part ways very quickly.

When we predict the future we are essentially looking for history to repeat. We need to be aware that history is repeating on many different levels. These are viewed most easily as different timeframes. If we consider the complex nature of interrelated markets and the different timeframes, it becomes clear that history won't repeat exactly.
The best we can expect is a close approximation to our prediction.

To be effective, I believe it worthwhile to predict the path taken to the next target. Think of the waypoints along the path that will confirm your prediction is valid. You may have one, two or maybe more different predicted paths to the next waypoint.
We should always allow for the market to vary it's path to the next waypoint. This is best realised by remembering that we are in the game to make a profit. By dropping our arrogance, our need to be right, we use stops to indicate our preferred paths are straight, or slightly curved. Our paths have to be paved with riches, we can't take huge detours. Our waypoints are entries and exits which confirm our predictions.
By predicting the path(s) we have a regular assessment of our performance en route to the next target.

It's not essential for us to travel each path, in fact it's preferable to avoid many. Experience tells us where predictions are easier and which paths carry the biggest riches.
As traders we needn't be too hung up about whether the markets move to a pre-determined plan; our goal is to profit financially regardless.