[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by Kiwi »

Thank you blowfish,

The one at the bottom answers the question "are the market's predictable." I just wanted to get there slowly so that people would better understand my argument.

Oops sorry, I am always the one that gets all excited when the aha moment comes and then spoil the carefully constructed presentation by blurting out the 'punch line'.

[MC]

I can't lie...it's cracking me up that NOBODY has chosen number 3.

[firewalker]

Originally Posted by MC »

I can't lie...it's cracking me up that NOBODY has chosen number 3.

To be honest, I kind of expected a fight between 1 and 2
looks like it's turning more into 60-40 again

Which is interesting imo, because most of the members who replied and posted seem to advocate option 2.

[Phil Mibbutz]

Haven't read the whole thread, but are black swans in any way related to butterflies?

[firewalker]

Originally Posted by Phil Mibbutz »

Haven't read the whole thread, but are black swans in any way related to butterflies?

you lost me there

[Phil Mibbutz]

Originally Posted by firewalker »

you lost me there

Have a Google for the Butterfly Effect, FW...

[atto]

Originally Posted by Phil Mibbutz »

Haven't read the whole thread, but are black swans in any way related to butterflies?

I don't think so, at least directly. Black Swans may be caused by small or big things. The Butterfly Effect, from what I understand, seems to work the best theoretically, because it's impossible to identify the cause that started the effect (if the cause is indeed extremely tiny).

"Black Swans" aren't effects, theories, or laws. There is no theory guiding or modeling them, besides "expect the unexpected". On another trading forum, I saw someone had identified three Black Swan potentials: S&P at 1000, Oil at $200, and a big financial going bankrupt. Sounds great, except those aren't Black Swans (and when I read the thread, not one person had noticed this). Black Swans aren't just unlikely events that we may have some forsight; they are extremely sudden, extremely important, and extremely unpredictable. With the real estate bust, credit crisis, bear markets, etc, it wouldn't be "shock and awe" for any of those identified "Black Swans" to happen.

[TEAMTRADER]

The truth is the correct answer is something between 1 and 2. If you have a predictive system then you may be nearer to 1 than 2.
The pity is that a group of serious traders do not get together to form an investment group as a business.
Everyone is cocooned in their own trading environment with their own system.
TEAMTRADER