[OAC]

Originally Posted by waveslider »

This is price, pattern, and time in action. If the center is as I identified it, we should see a turn on the 26th right about 129.6 in the SPY.

26th looks good. I have a trend change date of 25th based on market geometry going all the way back to the end of last year. We will probably nail it this time.

[waveslider]

should get a good washout day tomorrow. There is a technical low predicted for tomorrow. Looks like that gap up above is the destination for the first bounce.

[waveslider]

Price is within cents of the Andrews target and short term measured move in SPY, indecision candle with increasing volatility today. I am going to go out on a limb here and call this a short term bottom, but another test of today's low is likely probably later this week.

This move since may was not a pull-back in a trend. This is a market that is ranging and trying to establish a bottom. Why is it no longer a trend?

Price has pulled back too far. It failed at the 50% level of the previous downtrend (since January).

Volume has entered into the picture since the beginning of the month, the highest on the "shock" wave down on the 6th. These are the highest volume levels since March.

Momentum and breadth are showing clear bullish divergences here today. Check out the a/d line, trin.. also the relative strength chart of the Russell vs. SPX is amazing. Midcaps kicking @#$

Check out this chart of the OEX and the INVERTED VXO index (Same as VIX)

[waveslider]

Well we got a retest of the bottom and a good capitulation move too. The time was too early to turn on the Andrew's line. Plus since this is a range, things are going to overshoot till they hit support/resist.

The timing signal from the original chart still stands, and though things are looking ugly here, it looks like this move won't keep up much longer. If the market closes above yesterday's close then the cycle could be complete.

Interesting to not this small doji bar in the circle on the chart. This is looking more like the center now. That would put a time low on Tuesday. That is looking more likely, as this yesterday's move was more than expected.

[OAC]

Originally Posted by OAC »

26th looks good. I have a trend change date of 25th based on market geometry going all the way back to the end of last year. We will probably nail it this time.

What a day the 26th was ? The market blew significant supports like they are not even there ! I redid my calculation on Robert Miner's Dynamic Trader, I also got the 26th instead of 25th on my Fibonacci Trader software. But if you are a market geometry oriented intraday trader/scalper, Fibonacci Trader by Robert Krausz(one of the Market wizards), is by far the best out there.
To recap this past friday, the S&P rebounded on intermediate supports. Given the very over sold condition of the market, we will most likely see the rebound to continue on Monday. What is really striking me is the Nasdaq 100 having great symmetry here on the hourly chart:

[waveslider]

Momentum certainly dried up on the 26th as we said, but time said not to reverse until today.
Worth noting is that price made an exact 50% move past the gap down on the 18th. I think that was the major reversal today. In any case we can expect either volatility to send price higher immediately, or volatility to die and we retest this low and possibly go lower.
I'm not going to update this thread much more. While I do believe in this method, I am learning other methods which are more accurate.