[waveslider]

Check out this bearish one in the ES today....
point#5 right at VWAP, good quick move from #4 to #5, point 5 hit on volatility.

[Tasuki]

wavelsider, I did a comparison of the last two charts you posted (permalinks #73 and 81) and I noticed something interesting--in both cases, the wave lengths were not even throughout the formation of the Wolfe Wave. That is to say, in both cases there were three pivots that formed quickly, creating sharp, steep moves in price, but there was also a slow step as well, in which the price meandered and the pivot formed much more slowly. In one case, it was the wave from points 3 to 4, and in the other case, it was the wave from points 2 to 3--so it's not always at the same place.

I remember reading somewhere that the best Wolfe Waves occur when the waves are symmetrical and flow in a regular pattern. Well, it doesn't look as if that's exactly correct. At least in these two examples, there was one slow step in the process.

[waveslider]

I agree with you that the legs being of equal distance is not critical. Remember though that you are looking at tick charts in these examples, they don't match up with time always.
I did notice that in your first chart, the distance between 2 and 4 is about the same as distance from 3 to 5. This is another timing method.

[waveslider]

Here's one on a 466 tick ER chart. I chose point three because this was the momentum high. It was the natural point to use as a trend line. This market is having a hard time going lower, but it's doing a good job of shaking out longs.

A triple bottom (rare) may have been confirmed with the late afternoon's failure to close lower. I bought this market at the close of yesterday, holding..

[Tasuki]

See chart. Here's a nice one on a share (volume) chart of the ES.

[Tasuki]

See my comments in permalink #31 on page four of this thread. The attached chart is another example of a Butterfly which almost looks like a Wolfe Wave. Maybe it could be a variation. I won't be surprised if Monday's trading brings the ES up to the target at point 6 around 1490.

BTW, the pattern outlined in dark green on the chart is a classic "Butterfly" championed by Larry Pesavento and others. It definitely has a higher probability of success in some markets more than others. I'm not sure why that is--no doubt due to quirks in how different markets behave. I presume this would hold for Wolfe Waves, but I haven't done enough of a study yet to be able to tell.

I think I remember Bill Wolfe's website saying that the Wolfe Wave works in all markets.....the rate of success in one market vs. another would be a very interesting topic to investigate. As I pointed out in an earlier post, I also suspect that these patterns work better on tick or volume charts, but again, this needs to be researched.

[waveslider]

How did you draw those cool dotted triangle things?

I haven't done that much work on Butterfly, but I think that understanding market geometry would aid in finding successful patterns.

Is the butterfly generally a sort of whipsaw move?

[Tasuki]

Waveslider,
The cool dotted triangle things are just the work of the Butterfly indicator drawing out its pattern on my Tradestation chart.
Whipsaw? Well, I guess so. The Butterfly, like its parent, the Gartley, has specific Fibonacci ratios for each point in its pattern. The classic numbering pattern for these patterns is X-A-B-C-D (which corresponds to the Wolfe Wave numbering of 1-2-3-4-5). I have a friend who's eyes are so good at seeing patterns that he routinely trades the move from C to D (4 to 5, if this were Wolfe), but the originators of these patterns (Gartley and Butterfly) traded them after point D (point 5) was put in, much as Wolfe Waves are designed to be traded after point 5 has formed. The most interesting part of the Wolfe Waves, for me at least, is that there is an understanding of the psychology behind the formation of each point. I'm not sure this psychology was developed as extensively for the Gartley and Butterfly, but maybe I just haven't done enough reading. I have met Larry Pesavento on several occasions, and I don't remember him discussing the psychology in as much detail as Bill Wolfe did for his waves (and thanks again Waveslider for elucidating that psychology for me--extremely helpful).