Es-mini Pre-xmas Forecast + EUR/USD

[dannytraders 10]

Hi,

 

New to the forum, but just thought i'd post our trading groups forecast for this week. hope it can help someone out there.

 

Based on technical analysis we expect EsZ5 to go to 1870 based on the m pattern and on the daily and 4 hour charts. This level stays in play as long as we stay below 2067 (updates will come). We assume the market will go lower to test the fed’s will to raise rates. Expect investors to anticipate that the lower the es goes, the harder it will be for the fed to raise rates and stay hawkish. The caveat to that is a conspiracy theory that many traders believe that the fed (plunge protection team) will be out at full force to keep es elevated so that they don’t have the nightmare of going into the fed meeting with a crashing market. Due to all this uncertainty volumes will be light this week and markets will be illiquid. We will be very conservative and limit the amount of exposure that we take. Either way if we crash or rip this week for the last week and a half of the year we expect to get a santa clause rally (from where the dust settled) into the new year.

 

We’re going to be looking at the 1.14 ½ calls (expiring the 1st week of Jan) for the Euro vs Dollar based on the assumption that the Fed will be as accommodating and dovish as possible. The whole hedge fund community is on one side of this trade (long dollar vs euro) if the fed is more dovish than the market expects then we expect to see a short squeeze sending the Euro to higher levels. We’ll put the trade tomorrow morning, because we also expect people will take profit before the fed meeting and begin to sell their dollar long. Since the street is one sided and we see an opportunity for an exaggerated move to the upside we believe that these out of the money calls will give us the best opportunity to play this potential with a very low premium risk.

[dannytraders 10]

offering esz5 25.50 4 stop to make 4 oco; out for a winner

 

should of stayed short =) but that's part of discipline. Moving stop down to above today's highs - 2028.50 for new level

[dannytraders 10]

2016.75 offer 4/4 oco

[dannytraders 10]

taking off shorts and waiting till after fed report.

[dannytraders 10]

2036.50 offer esz5 4/4

[dannytraders 10]

Short: 36.50 bidding 32.50 stop 40.50

[dannytraders 10]

out: $12k profit :-)

[dannytraders 10]

2058.50 offer esz5 4/4 oco

[dannytraders 10]

stopped out. got to 61.50 and reversed.

 

 

2058.50 offer esz5 4/4 oco

[dannytraders 10]

forgot to mention - as esz5 moved lower we lowered stop to 2028 and got out at 2066. Now short esh6 at 2055. will update as it continues to go lower.

[dannytraders 10]

We had our original buy stop at yest highs which was 2073

We have our stop at 2030

Still short

When trades 2030 we will be out of the short and most likely long.

If continues to go lower we will try to find areas to lower our stop too