[mong]

hey guys, a trading friend of mine has started a blog on nq and es.

if you want to check it out its here.

http://www.happydaytrader.com/



his name is rajinder aka "profit"

[firewalker]

... here are some charts I was talking about from a while back (anyone remember dow at 14000?

It illustrates that the daily gyrations can sometimes stay in the same range for a while. These are some charts from October 2007, but you can find the same things today. I only look at these to get an impression of what the possible extent of a move could be. At that time the trending ranges were about 200 points. So that's the number you need to have in the back of your head when looking at these charts.

Like if we are trending and have dropped 500 points on the YM with 1 hour to go and the market approaching support, it would be more risky to short on the break than when we dropped 50 points with still 5 hours to go. But that's just how I see it, and there's no reason both trades can't be profitable. It's just something that helps me 'filter' my setups and skip the medium probability ones.

Credit to those who deserve it, it's something I first picked up in some of dbphoenix' ET posts and I gave it a twist of my own.

[firewalker]

Nice to see so many ppl in the chatroom these days!
Perhaps it would be fair to also allow the new guys to post in here? Just a thought...

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by firewalker »

Nice to see so many ppl in the chatroom these days!
Perhaps it would be fair to also allow the new guys to post in here? Just a thought...

I've been pumping the chat room, particularly to those interested in trading by "price action". How many of them become regulars remains to be seen.

Incidentally, the questions you're asking in the "Ideas for Struggling Traders" thread are excellent. The idea that thousands of market movers all over the world are going to act in concert, event or no event, prompts skepticism at best. At the very least, anyone advancing such a notion would not only have to provide a great many concrete examples but to do so in real time in advance of whatever move they're predicting. Without that, it's just more of the usual hindsight wizardry.

All of which is why Wyckoff warns against "event trading" and why he insists that it's all in the chart, a fact which Head2k and atto have demonstrated nicely.

[firewalker]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

I've been pumping the chat room, particularly to those interested in trading by "price action". How many of them become regulars remains to be seen.

Your marketing definitely has an effect... Hakuna (who seems to have a healthy sceptical attitude too) informed me he'll also be joining in next week.

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Incidentally, the questions you're asking in the "Ideas for Struggling Traders" thread are excellent. The idea that thousands of market movers all over the world are going to act in concert, event or no event, prompts skepticism at best.

Well I guess I'm just saying out loud what most of us are thinking...

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

All of which is why Wyckoff warns against "event trading" and why he insists that it's all in the chart, a fact which Head2k and atto have demonstrated nicely.

They have indeed. And although it's not been updated in some time, there's also the "all you need is... a chart" thread from a while ago.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by firewalker »

Well I guess I'm just saying out loud what most of us are thinking...

His implication that anyone who doesn't join the admiring throng is too dumb to understand what he's talking about -- particularly his last response to Hakuna -- suggests guruitis.

In any case, I've put together a chart that I hope better illustrates what I was trying to get across yesterday. Here, R was at 1200. Strong R. And I said early on that my "box" was 1100 to 1200. Price hit 1200 around 11:08, but there was no tickq divergence. It then floated back to what had become unexpected S/R about 1190, where it remained until 12:35. It then took another shot at 1200 at 12:39, and there was a minor TD which could have been taken or not but which was negated five minutes later.

Price then took off for 1208 at 12:58,

and here appeared what I would have been looking for had I been trading at the time.

Note that there's a pretty severe deterioration in the tickq beginning at 12:56, and one could take that. But the clearest sign of weakness is the level of the tickq when price is pushed into an attempt at a new high at 13:01:30. That's the entry (with a tight stop, as always), at least for me.

[atto]

I have had two new people request to get in. As is, I can't add them (so I PM Soul). Until we get a better system of doing things, if anyone asks how to get in, just tell them to PM me and I'll forward it on.

[firewalker]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Note that there's a pretty severe deterioration in the tickq beginning at 12:56, and one could take that. But the clearest sign of weakness is the level of the tickq when price is pushed into an attempt at a new high at 13:01:30. That's the entry (with a tight stop, as always), at least for me.

But, unless I'm mistaken, you are now suggesting a short after we broke - quote "strong R at 1200"... would it not be more logical to look for longs on the pullback then? I mean, the potential of a short around 1208 is around 1200, because at that time there were no signs (unless I'm missing something) that price would fall back below 1200.

I do remember yesterday at that time, after price broke down below 1200 (at 13:26 on high volume) you mentioned a re-test (from below) which did provide a short opportunity. Obviously we don't need to agree upon each trade, but I'm curious as to why you would take a short after breaking R.