[Bodhi Dharma Zen]

By now I know a little bit about technical analysis and I'm working towards having my own 100% automated trading system using tradestation. I asume that most of us have arrived here after spending time reading about some "magical" indicators that are proven ways to make you rich fast.

You know, those indicators that can accurately predict the future and won't let you lose a penny... yeah, right.

I have a scientific background and so this appears to be the right forum for me. I will read a little here and there and I hope I can ask some good questions to the experts in the forum.

See you around!

[Tams]

ALL the "indicators" analyze ONE tiny aspect of the market...

it is ONLY a tool...

you still have to know what you are doing.


Welcome, and enjoy the journey

;-)

[Bodhi Dharma Zen]

Tams, thanks, yes, I agree, an indicator is a tool, but there are countless of tools. I'm taking TA as a first approach to get some entry and exit points, but knowing also that you have to have good money management techniques, do extensive backtesting and other kind of analysis (like Montecarlo Simulations).

I'm still developing my own methodologies and hope to get some nice info and interesting discussions in the forum.

[Tams]

there are countless tools...

there are also countless situations... (i.e. CONTEXT)


If you understand the context, then you will know which "category" of tools are applicable in what situations...

[Bodhi Dharma Zen]

agreed, but first you need to define "context" and this requires more than just assuming that there are "trendy markets" and "shoppy markets" (to name two that come to my mind). this because it is easy to see that something is "trending" when you see the historical chart, this is called "confirmation bias" in which you believe you can recognize something as clearly evident and forget that the problem is to identify the trend fast enough in order to profit from it.

or.. what do you have in mind?

[BlowFish]

Identifying trend or chop (as broad categories) might not be a bad place to start. Many automated systems either trade one or the other though some 'flip a switch' and essentially use a different approach for those different market conditions.

[Bodhi Dharma Zen]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Identifying trend or chop (as broad categories) might not be a bad place to start. Many automated systems either trade one or the other though some 'flip a switch' and essentially use a different approach for those different market conditions.

yes, agreed, you would need two different approaches.. still, the question remains, (at least for me) how to properly (and timely) identify a trend or a chop market???

[BlowFish]

There are several ideas here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...chop-6104.html

You might find Ehlers books interesting, he comes from an engineering background and is looking to isolate the cyclical component using signal processing techniques.