[Bodhi Dharma Zen]

Originally Posted by ckait »

Its not impossible to identify when a trend starts. there are a couple cycles one should familiarize themselves with that is the balance imbalance cycle. balance is the range market like the last four days, imbalance will be the vertical move out of balance. which direction nobody knows (probably up just to piss all the tech guys off who are calling a top here), but either way I will trade in the direction of the move away from balance. It is usually a substancial move after balancing for a long time. That is the simplistic nature of the market and all one needs to be sucsessful to trade the markets. HA HA it takes a litttle more than that but thats the nuts and bolts of it.

This sounds interesting, take a number of days and then see if something breaks their balance.. still.. statistically it doesn't mean anything, so I'm guessing that there is more than the numbers going on, maybe you have intuitively grasping something else, or maybe you are merely experimenting a confirmation bias.

Do you actively trade using this principle?

[youri]

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[ckait]

yes I absolutley trade this method i got the morning trade than called it quits. today i shorted the balance area at 88.5 because it was the first test of the balance from the day before. i the morning it gave a nice reaction and i aws done by 7:00 pst today as well. These are MP principles I work off and jus follow along with the auction. dont try to fight it. And i had orders in to buy the 76's in the am but it didnt get that far.

[uexkuell]

"Trend" is an artificial concept.
That is the reason why it cannot be quantified.

With a pretty simple experiment this can be proven:
Enter e.g. EUR/USD with 1,000,000 EUR or USD. You will get immediately the feeling that there is a "trend" because the account goes up or down numbers that will probably seem significant.

With other words: Trend is a function of account size, profit expectancy and risk tolerance.

If huge leverage is used there is no trend-less phase, "chop" or whatever people call it.


When strategies seem not to work in "choppy" times this is due to some other problem - probably bad entry point.

If the entry point is chosen correctly it's always possible to choose one of:
- increase leverage
- increase time frame = wait until the symbol moves far enough

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by uexkuell »

"Trend" is an artificial concept.
That is the reason why it cannot be quantified.

With a pretty simple experiment this can be proven:
Enter e.g. EUR/USD with 1,000,000 EUR or USD. You will get immediately the feeling that there is a "trend" because the account goes up or down numbers that will probably seem significant.

With other words: Trend is a function of account size, profit expectancy and risk tolerance.

If huge leverage is used there is no trend-less phase, "chop" or whatever people call it.


When strategies seem not to work in "choppy" times this is due to some other problem - probably bad entry point.

If the entry point is chosen correctly it's always possible to choose one of:
- increase leverage
- increase time frame = wait until the symbol moves far enough

I don't see how the market can be a fuction of account size, profit expectancy and risk tolerance as the market has no "knowledge" about any of those. An indivudual leverage has zero impact about the trendiness of the market.

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by Bodhi Dharma Zen »

This sounds interesting, take a number of days and then see if something breaks their balance.. still.. statistically it doesn't mean anything, so I'm guessing that there is more than the numbers going on, maybe you have intuitively grasping something else, or maybe you are merely experimenting a confirmation bias.

Do you actively trade using this principle?

How do you know that statistically it doesn't mean anything? I would be interested to know what kind of testing you did to reach your conclusion?

[ckait]

The definition of trend is making higher highs and higher lows. The problem most people have is they dont understand what time frame they are trading. And it varys from time frame to time frame. A 1 min trend may only last 5 minutes or it could last 20. has nothing to do with account values.

[Bodhi Dharma Zen]

Originally Posted by ckait »

yes I absolutley trade this method i got the morning trade than called it quits. today i shorted the balance area at 88.5 because it was the first test of the balance from the day before. i the morning it gave a nice reaction and i aws done by 7:00 pst today as well. These are MP principles I work off and jus follow along with the auction. dont try to fight it. And i had orders in to buy the 76's in the am but it didnt get that far.

Understood. Interesting. Let me get this better. You are talking about 5 periods and the trigger is that the fifth is significantly different from the previous four? And is there a specific window to apply it? You can use such a system for minute, hourly, daily or weekly charts (to put an example) and my guess is that everyone will report different results.

Furthermore, I believe that you should be following just one or two things which you have learned that respond to this pattern.

I'm not saying that it doesn't work, just that I believe that, statistically, you won't find that following such a system will work a significant number of times, as markets tend to behave erratically.

Of course, I can be misunderstanding you.