[Soultrader]

Do you think oil will each $100 by the end of the year?

[Follow The Trend]

While many people feel that the oil price may have peaked, I for one do not agree. There are a number of factors to consider :-

There are still major issues in the middle east

We are entering the winter period when oil use is at its highest (especially in America)

Since 9/11 we have seen a major increase in East / West tensions, and it seems to be getting worse. Not a recipe for a falling oil price.

[nebraska]

Short term, the price may reach that level. But the innovations in fuel technologies worldwide will someday stabilize the oil market...at least I hope they do.

Even if these technologies don't have a positive affect on the price of oil soon, the impact they have does make a big difference in many ways. I own a restaraunt in rural Nebraska and we currently have an ethanol plant being built in our town. The construction project alone has had an immediate impact on not only my business, but for the entire area as well. These ethanol plants are being built or are in the planning stages throughout the Midwest in the United States.

This activiy shows that the investment in ethanol is one that is being taken seriously. Brazil is 100% oil independent. This may be a lofty goal for a country the size of the US, but can make an impact serious enough to lessen the need for crude oil. Additionally, smaller countries can use the developments and technologies derived from ethanol production in the US to make oil independece a reality for them.

[artp01]

I think we are clicking the No button in expectation only. There might be a real possiblity of Oil touching $100 but that may take some time. As now it is going down for several reasons, things will be clear after 5-6 months.

[Piptrader]

No way we are going to hit $100 a barrell. That would cause a global panic.

[feb2865]

I agree with Nebraska on the ethanol intiatives US goverment is taking to reduce dependecy on oil. I don't think will top $100.00

There's a big (huge) debate among economist about Pres. Bush manipulating oil prices via strategic oil inventories. I totally disagree with that. I have no faith in poiliticians as I believe they reach to a point of which they become "sophisticated liars" But I think Pres Bush is serious about cutting or at least reducing our dependency of oil. Moreover they're been effective in reducing the inmediate demand on oil, as you see the crude has been coming down. Just look at the OPEC and their desperate measures on cutting off output. That's a clear indication of supply exceeding demand. You know what happens when supply exceeds demand rigth?

About winter, Natural gas is usually a derivate that skyrockets on the winter. But all natural gas inventories(underground storage), in all regions(east and west) exceeds 5- year highs as sept 2006.
We migth see a balance between supply/demand on natural gas.

Raul

[artp01]

Thanks to feb2868, we have got a new pointer. Yes we should start less depending on OPEC. We should try alternate sources. If President Bush's effort gets success the world will be a better place to live. More peace then.

[bdwarr6]

OPEC will not be in controll of the market much longer, with General Motors and Ford, along with many other automakers using E-85(Ethanol) the world is going to be changing very shortly if OPEC doesnt quit price gouging and set some realistic prices. Ethanol however more expensive than gas, will be brought down in price once it is manufactured on the same skall as gas is now.

So OPEC basicly will get to choose thier fate here shotly