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TopstepTrader

Living to Trade Another Day

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Here we are again sailing in the wind of massive end of month buying amidst a worldwide recession, less than stellar GDP estimates, earnings with declining revenues, and a severely depleted workforce. Nothing surprises me anymore. I suppose all we need is the Fed Chairman or ECB President to tell us that they will “do whatever it takes” to support the dollar and Euro respectively, and the markets will scream higher. We are so inclined to buy the rumor and sell the fact that this current formula, although may not really add up, actually makes sense. We've come to expect the unexpected.

 

I’m a trader and I’m looking for trades. Volatility and price action create opportunities, so even if there is no rhyme or reason to the movement, this flow allows me to increase my profit potential and find good if not great trade locations. The best way to be proficient in capturing these opportunities is to know how to trade the rest of the time when the market isn’t creating such large price movements.

 

Most of the time the markets don’t move as swiftly and definitively and the monotony can be tough to cope with. We find ourselves reaching for trades that aren’t necessarily there and displaying a clear lack of restraint in our trade execution. If your trading has been suspect, it may not mean you lack focus, but just seem to not care about losing. Going for broke and then getting mad at the market is not the answer. We know it doesn’t owe us anything and it certainly doesn’t care. We seem to believe “I’m right” and the market can’t possibly go against me. As soon as this emotion is triggered trading should be halted. You’ll tell yourself you're right no matter how wrong you are. Learn to be more satisfied with smaller profits and consistent, profitable trading will be the result. We act out of character because we’ve done well before but want more. This market, with limited resources, presents infrequent opportunities. We should only be looking for a few trades. Stay in the game and don’t force the issue. Greed is an evil you don’t want to know. Uncontrollable trading has never proved to be beneficial. If it has, it’s only been luck. We can’t rely on that. If you know how to control your trading during the tedious market days, you will know how to recognize major moves and be able to capitalize on them when they happen. Focusing on the grind will ultimately allow you to be more profitable more often.

 

 

Trade well,

 

Brian Welsh AKA Jayhawk

TopstepTrader Senior Scout and Trading Coach

 

Brian Welsh is a professional Broker and Trader on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade. Brian also serves as TopstepTrader's Senior Scout. Brian is featured daily on the Live Squawk Radio during his "Chalk Talk with Jayhawk" sessions at 10:30am CST. Brian is also one of our professional Trading Coaches and is available for private coaching. TopstepTrader seeks to find and develop undiscovered trading talent from around the world. While in our program, those who display a strong trading skill and aptitude will be backed as a fully-funded trader.http://www.topsteptrader.com/

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    • Date: 25th April 2024. Investors Monitor a Potential Japanese Intervention, and upcoming Tech Earnings. Meta stocks top earnings expectations, but revenue guidance for the next 6 months triggers significant selloff. Meta stocks decline 15.00% and the Magnificent Seven also trade lower. Japanese Authorities are on watch and most market experts predict the Japanese Federal Government will intervene once again. The Japanese Yen is the day’s worst performing currency while the Australian Dollar continues to top the charts. The US Dollar trades 0.10% lower, but this afternoon’s performance is likely to be dependent on the US GDP. USA100 – Meta Stocks Fall 15% On the Next 6-Months Guidance The NASDAQ has declined 1.51% over the past 24 hours, unable to maintain momentum from Monday and Tuesday. Technical analysts advise the decline is partially simply a break in the bullish momentum and the asset continues to follow a bullish correction pattern. However, if the decline continues throughout the day, the retracement scenario becomes a lesser possibility. In terms of indications and technical analysis, most oscillators, and momentum-based signals point to a downward price movement. The USA100 trades below the 75-Bar EMA, below the VWAP and the RSI hovers above 40.00. All these factors point towards a bearish trend. The bearish signals are also likely to strengthen if the price declines below $17,295.11. The stock which is experiencing considerably large volatility is Meta which has fallen more than 15.00%. The past quarter’s earnings beat expectations and according to economists, remain stable and strong. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by 8.10% and revenue was as expected. However, company expenses significantly rose in the past quarter and the guidance for the second half of the year is lower than previous expectations. These two factors have caused investors to consider selling their shares and cashing in their profits. Meta’s decline is one of the main causes for the USA100’s bearish trend. CFRA Senior Analyst, Angelo Zino, advises the selloff may be a slight over reaction based on earnings data. If Meta stocks rise again, investors can start to evaluate a possible upward correction. However, a concern for investors is that more and more companies are indicating caution for the second half of the year. The price movements will largely now depend on Microsoft and Alphabet earnings tonight after market close. Microsoft is the most influential stock for the NASDAQ and Alphabet is the third. The two make up 14.25% of the overall index. If the two companies also witness their stocks decline after the earnings reports, the USA100 may struggle to gain upward momentum. EURJPY – Will Japan Intervene Again? In the currency market, the Japanese Yen remains within the spotlight as investors believe the Japanese Federal Government is likely to again intervene. The Federal Government has previously intervened in the past 12 months which caused a sharp rise in the Yen before again declining. The government opted for this option in an attempt to hinder a further decline. Volatility within the Japanese Yen will also depend on today’s US GDP reading and tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. However, investors will more importantly pay close attention to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Investors will be keen to see if the central bank believes it is appropriate to again hike in 2024 as well as comment regarding inflation and the economy. In terms of technical analysis, breakout levels can be considered as areas where the exchange rate may retrace or correct. Breakout levels can be seen at 166.656 and 166.333. However, the only indicators pointing to a decline are the RSI and similar oscillators which advise the price is at risk of being “overbought”. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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