[Marsupilami]

Hello brownsfan,

thank you for welcoming me "aboard". Judging from what I have read on this board so far, I think it is a very nice website. Very informative, and less negativity than on other boards.
I also like the fact that several users here are into Market Profile...which I am trying to get into more deeply.

Regards,
Mars

[The Bear]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

Looking past these unforeseen and unpredictable events, the CL was a great week of trading for myself. I honestly cannot believe the points I took home this week. Today was by far the worst day of the week and net pts was 61.63 after commissions and fees. At $10/tick, not a bad day of work, but the absolute worst day this week for me.

For me, the real question right now is - do I focus 100% on the CL where I can trade less in terms of number of contracts (and much lower commission costs as a result) or trade the ES, but in much higher increments. If my goal is to equal the returns in the ES that I am seeing in the CL, the ONLY way to do that consistently is to increase the size I am trading and only compare actual net dollars.

Point being - I can trade less contracts on the CL, pay quite a bit less in commissions and make more money....

Just a word of advice Brown, don't get too excited over a week of oil trading. It's normal to have great gains in CL, but you need these to buffer the big losses you'll eventually get, and they will come sooner or later. The oil market is funny this way, you can get these huge gains but then it can evaporate quick. The swings are fast and furious but it's also great like you said if you don't like waiting.

What I mean is, don't look at a weeks performance too critically. I would say, compare your results after 6 months of CL trading vs the Index trading.

[The Bear]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Is it quite 'technical'? (Hows that for a vague term). Is it 'trendy' on intraday time frames ? I'll try and think of some more vague generic questions

Cheers.

From my experience, CL is most of the time not trendy on intra-day time frames. There are some days where you get really nice trends, good quality, and on these days gains come quick and fast, but most of the time it's pretty choppy and erratic. It's like any market, you get good days then ugly days....

[The Bear]

Originally Posted by Marsupilami »

Hello brownsfan,

However, regarding the risk/reward ratio, I'm not so sure whether oil is better than e.g. the ES.
Moves in both oil and natural gas can be so sharp and drastic that, I'm afraid, no stop loss will help if the market goes the wrong way.
Good trading

In my opinion, no market is better than any other. We trade what we trade, and if we feel more comfortable in one than another - then stick with it. What you are witnessing with CL is a difference in leverage than the ES. Changes in gearing change the feel. For example if you want fast moves, then Henry Hub NG is the market for you. The leverage is high and the moves are fast even for 1 contract it carries good leverage.

As far as getting fleeced in the energy markets, yes, with even a single contact like NG, if something goes wrong like a technical problem, you could potentially get hurt much quicker than 1 CL contract or 1 ES contract, simply due to the gearing. The gearing is higher, so if you get a runnaway market (and it happened to me once but I minimized the pain) and your stop doesn't execute, it can get a little hairy. But nobody should even enter these commodity markets unless they are aware of these risks, and are willing to lose that kind of money.