[lastninja2]

Hi this is my first post and thanks for sharing your experinces.
Hi, no probs.
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I take it that you are based in the Uk like me.
I'm based in london
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I just wondered what broker do you use as the American brokers seem to offer lower commissons and there are far more of them.
I do not actively trade yet because I am quite sure I would lose money. However, a few months ago I did open a 10,000GBP account with Velocity Futures.
My thoughts?

*Their capital reserves are less than 2million USD, and I therefore keep an eye on Velocity Futures on google news to make sure they don't look likely to blow up and take half my net worth with them.

*I have had some issues with their Trading Technologies data feed (the data feed, where eurex is concerned at least, is not trustworthy in my opinion). Some trading buddies of mine have also reported issues with their data.

*They only require 5000USD to open an account, and then they offer X-Trader platform for FREE (although transaction fees are around 1EUR more than otherwise would be, per round turn). However, since I do not actively trade (I only observe), I do not care so much about that.

I also recently opened an account with AMP Futures.
Why? Because they only require 500USD to open an account, and they provide access to Ninja Trader platform, and also a CQG live data feed. I have not had ANY trouble so far with this data feed, and I am very happy with it.

I would demo trade for about 3-6 month before going live.

For what my opinion is worth - and it is contrary to the opinions of some others - you should not trade with real money until you are absolutely confident the battle has already been won, so to speak.
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What data, Chart package, dom do you use and how much do they cost per month? I think that you are using x trader which is expensive
*As I mentioned above, I do have X-trader on my machine, and I have access to it for FREE via Velocity Futures. But I do not actually use X-trader any longer.
I believe most of the pro's use X-trader, but there are benefits to using NinjaTrader (superior charting, for example, and it is more flexible in terms of what add-ons you can bolt on to it).
*The data feed I actively use is CQG from AMP Futures (also free, just 500USD to open account).
*The DOM I use is actually a specialized piece of software created by Jigsaw Trading (the creator posts periodically on this forum). You can google it if you like, you will see there are some advantages to it, in the way it presents the market information. It is not expensive and since I started watching this DOM, I do not envisage myself returning to the old ones. It was not built to actually execute trades on, however, so where taking the actual trades is concerned you would have to use X-trader, or Ninjatrader dom, whatever.
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How do you hedge your currency risk as you are tading the euro stoxx which is in euros.
Is your account now totally in Euros?

My account is a mix of GBP, USD and EUR. The total value is around 15,300USD. I do not hedge. It fluctuates up and down, and there's not a great deal I can do about it. I just accept it.
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Do you still trade this setup? and if so do you manage to trade it for consistent profits?
As I mentioned above, I do not actively trade any setup. I just sit and watch the market and very very rarely will I make a bet on my spread betting platform. Why? Because I am confident at this moment in time I would lose what little money I have. One bad trade is equivalent to a days pay at my local bar - to hell with that.
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I would like to understand if it is a waste of time or not to study this. I am just interested in trading this large orders not in other dom/order flow setups.
All I can tell you is my own experience:
I have witnessed this 'setup', as you call it, occur right before a big market reversal. Sometimes probably it was coincidental... but it happened often enough that there is DEFINITELY a link between the two. I no longer watch for this 'setup' however... I am pursuing other avenues - still a total noob though, don't get me wrong.
Why did I give up on this 'setup'?
Well, I recall some time ago there was a 1 or 2 week period when I saw this setup occur many times, but the market did not reverse. It just kept powering through the orders.
What I failed to grasp - and that is still the case today - is when the setup is valid as a signal and when it is not. I think you need to understand the context of the market to determine when it really does signal a reversal, and when it means nothing.
One potential investigative method, which I tried but gave up on due to laziness, is watching the market all day, marking the specific times that you see the setup, and then perhaps painting those occurences on a chart to see if there is some relationship between when the setup worked, and when it did not. Just a thought - maybe a bul#£hit one?
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Today i noticed the same on a couple of italian stocks i follow, I would like to make some videos and post them in a new thread, will maybe start tomorrow.
Good luck. I cannot say whether you will succeed if you focus on this setup, or another setup like it. But I'll tell you what I firmly believe (I believed it firmly enough to throw away my old career and become a barman).
If you watch the DOM for long enough, and make notes - typed or mental notes, whatever - it will begin to make sense.

That's all I've got to say this evening.

Good luck, I'll keep my eye on this thread and periodically update.

[darklost]

Hello I just started a thread about "WALLS" and started to upload videos

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ding-wall.html

[uexkuell]

Referring to the first post in this thread:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...tml#post136636

Originally Posted by lastninja2 »

Getting profitable with one lot is proving difficult, as I expected it to be. Nevertheless I'll keep staring at the DOM until it starts to make sense to me.

May I ask what the outcome of this endeavour is so far?

Does it pay out?

[lastninja2]

hi
dont have a great deal of time to write an essay but will do what i can:

*I believe it is possible to become consistently profitable from your own bedroom. But difficult.

*Retailers generally have 2nd rate technology, slower news wires, and higher transaction costs. It makes trading an uphill struggle but I dont think you can use these as an excuse for failure - perhaps you could adapt your approach somewhat to offset the transaction costs as best you can, and reduce the reliance on split second entry? Also, talking forex / com is a decent squawk, in my opinion. You could probably get a couple of big "gimmie" trades each month. e.g. natural disaster/unexpected central banker spiel.

*I think special attention to developing long-term edge, rather than fixation on any individual outcome is important.

*I also think it is crucial to get a decent trade simulator - the only acceptable one I know of is via TT.

*Develop some basis for entering a trade. Trade it every time you see it on sim. Note down everything you can about what happened. Record the screen with camtasia if you need to and watch replay later.

Just some of my thoughts.

In the end I gave up on bartending/bedroom trading - just not sustainable, too exhausting.
I joined a prop firm instead; better place to figure it out, and also potential for backing a larger account than i could ever fund myself.

GL

[mikew]

Originally Posted by lastninja2 »

*I think special attention to developing long-term edge,

*Develop some basis for entering a trade.

How do you develop some basis for entry, that you can reliably determine has an edge? Certainly theres plenty of traders who have developed a basis for entry when two moving averages cross one another. But how can you be sure of what you're choosing actually DOES have a long-term edge?

[lastninja2]

Possibly backtesting, although I don't know anything about that.
How about remaining on a trading simulator for several months, multiple trades every day - will that provide a statistically significant sample?

[mikew]

Yeah I suppose so, simulating for several months should be enough to give you a good idea.

But is statistical samples the only way to determine if you have an edge? Suppose you simulate for 6 months and win consistently, and then you go live and the market changes and you no longer win. It seems to me the WHY behind the trades is where the true edge must be, but I'm having a hard time figuring it out..