[isamel]

Hello,

I usually trade FX but is very interested in the order flow and as you already know that only is visible in futures (currency futures i.e. 6E etc).

I have seen (mainly on this site) that many of you "track" the commercial players in the futures market by div. tools. I am looking to discuss this as I find it very interesting. Some use proprietary velocity algos it seems, while others index benchmarks of cumulative delta.

Now I wonder, which one do you think works the best and do you really think you have found a way to track the large participants that move the market?

Thank you

[slick60]

Originally Posted by isamel »

Hello,

I usually trade FX but is very interested in the order flow and as you already know that only is visible in futures (currency futures i.e. 6E etc).

I have seen (mainly on this site) that many of you "track" the commercial players in the futures market by div. tools. I am looking to discuss this as I find it very interesting. Some use proprietary velocity algos it seems, while others index benchmarks of cumulative delta.

Now I wonder, which one do you think works the best and do you really think you have found a way to track the large participants that move the market?

Thank you

Isamel
Hello to you. I too attempt to trade the forex EURUSD and others but also have a futures account where I follow and trade the 6E almost exclusively. The futures is good because it does in fact give you a volume figure of trades. I run market profile software and follow the market generated information from it. The footprint charts I found confusing to me and I was probably not really able to understand correctly. Knowing how the market moves and why and what to look for is a better bet I feel. I believe you have to develop a feel for the market and be able to recognize a number of things taking place at a given time in order to be able to see the moves of the BIG MONEY. Markets including forex are manipulated and DO NOT let anyone tell you different. One simple, maybe not so simple thing I found was information from this site https://www.marketmakersforex.com/
This video about 2 hours long will shed a bit of evidence on what I am saying. By the way I am in no way connected with MMfx or have I paid them one cent. Just believe me and Steve that this shit really is what happens. Case in point is to look at a 15 minute chart of Fiber today (eurusd) as it is classic of what he says. Bloody amazing. This is a starting point for you - I do not know how much experience you have. I have tons.

slick

[joshdance]

Originally Posted by isamel »

Now I wonder, which one do you think works the best and do you really think you have found a way to track the large participants that move the market?

Thank you

What do you hope to accomplish by "tracking" large participants? When you see volume trade high in a market, you can be sure that this is a large participant (or large participants), and these are his (or their) footprints. However, if you're hoping to "track" by knowing what his position is, what he intends to do next, etc., you are wasting your time. Particularly in currency futures, when you are really interested in FX. The agenda of the multi-million dollar trader is often very different from the agenda of the retail trader; perhaps he is taking a very large position in futures simply to hedge an even larger position on the spot market or another contract; would you want to do what he does then? (no is probably the answer) No one knows, and anyone who answers affirmatively to the above question you asked is either selling something, or delusional. Just my

[isamel]

Originally Posted by joshdance »

What do you hope to accomplish by "tracking" large participants? When you see volume trade high in a market, you can be sure that this is a large participant (or large participants), and these are his (or their) footprints. However, if you're hoping to "track" by knowing what his position is, what he intends to do next, etc., you are wasting your time. Particularly in currency futures, when you are really interested in FX. The agenda of the multi-million dollar trader is often very different from the agenda of the retail trader; perhaps he is taking a very large position in futures simply to hedge an even larger position on the spot market or another contract; would you want to do what he does then? (no is probably the answer) No one knows, and anyone who answers affirmatively to the above question you asked is either selling something, or delusional. Just my

Nice, thanks for getting it going. I don't necessarily believe that high volume equals large participants. It may be a area where many traders are interested of (large S/R + many retail) and larger traders can split up their orders with VWAP etc sending 1 lot orders X 1000 at different times.

No I assume there is no possibility in knowing what his position is, although it would be interesting to know whether he is entering long or short. Let's assume he is going long, that would either be gonig long (obviously) or getting out of a short position. Some delta guys around here, and particularly vendors, seem to "know" what type of position they get into and also if it is closing of old business or new business. That would be interesting.

For example, Fulcrum talks often of indexing players by Cumulative delta, I tried to ask him, but never really got an answer (don't get mad if you see this..) as to how this is done.

So what I am interested in is a discussion, in whether you really CAN know what they are up to? Maybe looking at correlated instruments? Sometimes 6E and ES cumulative delta differs, but they are still the same "risk-on"-trade..

[steve46]

You can't know who is really moving markets by cumulative volume, delta, or any processing of volume that retail traders have access to....sorry....

You can reverse the process and know that in general the top tier institutions are looking to move markets in a direction and you can even narrow down the focus to specific time periods....that is how I use my time based pivots.......the vendors don't like this.....for example I received a couple of nasty comments from Urma Blume among others asking me not to post in "their threads"....hahahaaa...ri ght....

So its up to the individual....frankly I am not interested a long dialogue about it...you can read my thread "An Institutional look at S&P Futures" in the Emini Forum and if you have the ability to think critically it is all there in front of you....I use it to this day....and it works....because it is based on the motivation of professionals to make money....unlike using indicators, that motivation isn't going to change...

PM me if you need any clarification on the basics...and once again for the record....although I am listed as a vendor.....I don't have anything to sell....my class is full....

Good luck

[TheDude]

well, you could always look at the CoT report.

as Josh says - it's pretty irrelevant. i can tell you as a certainty that some big players are long, and others are short.

sure the vendors want to make you think they have the secret sauce - its called salesmanship.

they dont.

[steve46]

COT is of limited use to the retail crowd....Steven Briese's book is excellent on this subject...and if I can remember the name of the one trader I used to know who used it profitably I will post it later

With regard to who has the secret sauce....this is simple...I don;t think there are any "secrets" per se....ultimately all you need is an edge....I found mine....

Good luck finding yours.

[slick60]

I am going to address this post to Isamel but it can really apply to any trader out there trying to win. Have you read Tom Williams book Master the Markets? I am sure this has been mentioned and reviewed etc on the Volume Spread Analysis thread. I am less than a week in TL forums and have not read everything. Just starting. Also there is a Market Profile threadssssssssssssss here that probably have a wealth of information. Read the books by James Dalton, Mind over Markets and Markets in Profile. Tons of information. Take a look at what Steve Mauro is telling you. There are clues from Elliott Wave Analysis that help to answer your question. If you want to look at timing as to when will this market turn which is another clue as to who is playing the game at any given time study The Delta Phenomenon by Welles Wilder. Look at and study the Market Matrix by Steve Copan who has refined and expanded the Delta Phenomenon.
Using these tools I looked for a low in the eurusd of 1.2665-75 to come in Sunday night or Monday morning early this week. With delta I had a high due in that currency due to come in during the 9:00am 4 hour bar this morning. The London open reverse came in on schedule during the 3:15am bar this morning after a sharp move down by the market makers through the Asian session to a level of 1.382 times the Asian session range. The market makers then showed one of their footprints by doing a 1.144 retrace of a fake move to trap new shorts and breakout traders. Look at a 5 minute chart (shows there very well ) of how a "W" formed and the move went north. We topped out showing excess on the 15 minute charts (looks good) on 6 bars culminating on the 8:15am bar. This move was a to the pip .786 retrace in relation to a 2nd wave back in November. There is a good possibility that will be the high for this little advance north. If not it has little room to go before a reverse hits it again in my opinion. Market profile started out for most of the day after the last high looking like a "b" pattern which signified long liquidation or "old business". Now the pattern appears to be evolving into a nice balanced day and setting up an area of stops to be run by the MM's.
So - how can you tell who is playing the game. Market profile says day traders appear to be in charge since there is no initiative buying or selling BUT I also see this as an area of distribution taking place.
We are right on the brink of a substantial move north in this currency pair for about 4 weeks or so. It should have legs and I will be following it.
Isamel, there is a lot to learn about as to how this market or any of them work. Lord knows I am still trying to learn and hopefully I may pick up some tidbits from the guys in these forums who are closer to the "holy grail" than I am.
Good luck everyone with your trading and may THE LITTLE GUY WIN one of these days. Big money tells us when they are active in the market. Let's crack their code.

slick
click on link http://screencast.com/t/MrEeQOVao