[steve46]

Here is the trade as it stands now...at 10:47 PST

I am really tired and will cut this one short, even though it is not quite at my 10 point target

Clearly not all of them work out like this but...this is one example of how one can use the concept of reversal, continuation, trend and then reveral....as the basis of a systematic approach to markets.

Now I need to get some sleep

Best of luck to all

[zdo]

The Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (up) is to take a (short) position.
The Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (dn) is to take a (long) position.

:smilie for that not invented yet:

[bobcollett]

Originally Posted by zdo »

The Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (up) is to take a (short) position.
The Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (dn) is to take a (long) position.

:smilie for that not invented yet:

Dear zdo
You are still talking in riddles
Kind regards
bobc

[zdo]

Originally Posted by bobcollett »

Dear zdo
You are still talking in riddles
Kind regards
bobc

The VERY Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (up) is to take a (short) position.
The VERY Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (dn) is to take a (long) position.


Mischievous maybe, but no riddles. Take it literally
(and I should preface my remarks with this: In no way am I demeaning any of the methods or any of the posters above. Seriously - I appreciate their contributions)

One up (or dn) bar, one outside close, etc. IS a trend.
It may last only this or a couple more bars or it may last for years - literally. So re "determining" - Even if you know where all the “big orders” are, etc. you still can’t know when more and /or even bigger countervailing orders are coming, etc…. same with SR etc., same with ALL the tricks for “finding” trend, etc.. (and, yes, some methods are better than others ...)

And the one bar "trend" is as ‘strong’ a trend, in each moment, ( ie now ), as is a trend that has 5 higher high and higher low ( or vice versa for dn) swings behind it - because each one of these trends, the one bar ‘trend’ and the ‘established’ ‘trend’, could end on the very next tick.

From this moment of needing to determine when the market is really trending, you could do further analysis, projections, calculate targets and zones, apply multi methods, etc. to “Determine When the Market is Really Trending” or if it is apparently in an uptrend, just short it and find out / "Determine When" for sure

Just ask zdo. He’s been shorting the yen for over 18 months now and can without any hesitation tell you he has determined without any doubt at all it is still in an uptrend. ZERO DOUBT! (… and also no doubt that this particular trend could end tomorrow )


yogi said it best “when you get to the fork in the road, take it”

[zdo]

for bobc - rephrasing “The VERY Best Way…”
Shorting a ( possible) uptrend is a slightly better way of determining when the market is trending than is going long in a (possible) uptrend (and vice versa for possible dn trends)… better because of increased internal ‘sensitivity’
:the wry smilee hasn’t been invented for this one yet either:


re: “and can without any hesitation tell you he has determined without any doubt at all when it is still in an uptrend”
by the same token, that’s also how I started getting long PM’s pre 2000…
and added to the positions many times during subsequent “downtrends” over the years.
and recently lifted PM hedges, especially in Silver
…

…learning to keep it simple. In trend trading – which I’m not very good at (and fortunately don’t have to be) – keeping it simple is simple. With trend trading, the outliers literally ARE the edge!



“The markets are always trending”. … most often they are trending sideways :jaded: :smilee:

[RealDemo]

Interesting discussion.

From a novice trader viewpoint I use the simple HH HL/LH LL rule applied to the timeframe being traded, and honestly I don't want to sound trite when I say that.

I trade intraday so my main focus is on the shorter trends but that doesn't mean I can't also be aware of the bigger picture. Often my entry plan into one of these intraday trades needs to expand as the outlook has become more favourable and the risk needs to be taken to maybe leave 1 or 2 lots on to run. Recent EURUSD short from 1.3750 down to 1.3470 that I got stopped out of yesterday as an example.

My intraday trade may have ended but the higher TF is still trending in my favour so I try and keep with it and ride it a bit further. Same definition different timescale.

As I said I find this an interesting discussion, but personally in my own trading world I need a black and white definition that I can apply without hesitation, like an on/off switch.
Sometimes it takes me out to early, sometimes it saves my bacon but either way it is unconditional and keeps my trades framed and safe from my trading ego.

[zdo]

...continuing...

The second Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (up) is to take a (long) position.
The second Best Way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending (dn) is to take a (short) position.

:duh smilee that's not doh concussining his forehead:

"When you get to the fork in the road, take it" Yogi B

[zdo]

… continuing…
(In my own experience…)
The third best way to Determine When the Market is Really Trending
is to measure if and how closely price is moving in phase with (a properly selected and constructed summation of activated) cycles.

:wtf? smilee: