[iwshares]

Hi FXAllday,

Not sure if you are still reading this forum but I've got some more thoughts on EUR/USD:

Price has been in an intermediate term downtrend since hittting the 1.49 high in May. Rather than following the IT downchannel, price formed a triangle, which broke out to the downside 11/7/11, This breakout reversed at point A. Was this a false breakout of the triangle or was that the fullmove?

Price then entered a short term upchannel, within the IT downchannel. It has hit resistance at 1.445 and pulled back, though still within the upchannel. There is the potential of an upward triangle forming, which indicates a possible break to the upside. However price not returning to the upchannel upper edge indicates a possible failure of the up channel and a breakout to the downside, keeping price withing the IT downtrend.

As written on the chart Plan A would be to short a retest - if it happens - of 1.445.

Plan B would be to go long if price breaks through the 1.445 resistance, the IT downtrend line, a "real" breakout of the first triangle and a breakout of the upward triangle forming in the ST upchannel. Be aware of possible resistance around the last IT downtrend touch at 1.4577.

Hope this is of use to someone, please note this is not trading advice, just my take on the current situation and I would appreciate anyone else's thought/comments.


Thanks
IWshares


N.b. the upward lines on the chart represent the 50% and 75% points of the channel. Will price move into a sideways range if the triangle "expires" without a firm breakout?