[Snow Dog]

Markets go from highs to lows with bounces along the way. These retracements provide good opportunites to enter into a move with a relatively small stop loss. A good trader said to me that the first retracement is the best trade, ie the first higher low/lower high.

I have previously used indi's but my best results come trading naked so I'm back to that.

There are 3 trades to consider:

1)Higher lows and lower highs from 5 min can be taken at extremes (also known as 1 2 3 tops/bottoms) and are great trades. I want to see some supporting information from the 15 min chart ie a nice reversal candle and for the turn to be at a key level ie pivot, round number etc etc.

2)What I'll call 100% system trades that will follow the 1hr and 15 min candles with entry from 5 min higher lows and lower highs. I do not want to see an obvious contra indication from 15 min, e.g. I would not want to be selling a 5 min lh immediately after a high vol hammer on 15 min. I would like to be selling a 5 min lh after an engulfing negative close candle/shooting star with little/no lower wick on 15 min. There are always exceptions to the rule, a double top high, lower close on 15 min that fails to go higher would be a good sign of failure to move up. For example, if a 5 min lower high followed a previous 1hr negative close and a 15 min DTHLC I'd consider selling.

3)Between 7 and 9 am gmt where a decent range is around 50 pips, we will look for 1 min hl/lh's at key levels (round numbers, psych 75/25, prior session proven supp/res levels, pivots etc). This is to try and take advantage of Frankies open 40-60 pip range, the London open head fake moves.


General
GU - Each time there is a stall and turn that extreme becomes the starting point potentially for the 125 pip London session move. This bigger move is more likely to happen after 9.30 gmt than before.

Some knowledge of candlestick analysis is required as you want to be trading the right candles. To help see www.candlesticker.com. I see there are some candlestick threads here.

This is not some indicators line up press go system, analysis is required as markets change. Some of the key items are: consider key levels for turns (round numbers, D W and M pivots, some fibs), follow the 1hr, are we above below 1hr 8 lwma, look at 15 min candles, 5 min hl/lh's. A cross of an 8 lwma on 5 min chart gives an easy visual clue of a higher low or lower high in most cases. Once set up on 5 min price should move a pip or so beyond the high low of the set up candle to confirm the trade.

Current set up

1hr chart. 8 lwma on close. Pivots and pivot point multitimeframe.

15 min chart. 8 lwma and 24 lwma. Prev day hl + open. Better volume.

5 min chart. As per 1hr chart plus sdx sweetspots v 5.2 for round, half, 25 + 75 numbers. #MTF moving average settings 60,8,0,3,0 to approx the 1hr 8wma. I have some traffic lights that show whether 1hr (top line), 15 min (middle line) have closed positive green or negative red and whether we above green or below red the 1hr 8 lwma.

I am unable to post templates as there is a 'virtualisation' problem between vista/mt4,

NB Watching and trading the right candles is always important.

Stops: Around 15 pips 1.5% of capital.

Exits: Up to you. Please consider that my better half Mrs V has been inducted into The 20Pips Bank Hall of Fame and thats something I have to listen to all the time.

NB This is naked multi-timeframe trading, the above "indi's" are not any kind of rsi etc combo they show the state of candles, 1hr and 15 min ie in their upper or lower half and whether we are above or below 1hr 8 lwma.

[Snow Dog]

Got this gu buy yesterday. 1hr up 15 min nice hl. Exit +20.

[Snow Dog]

Had this sell on ej today.

1hr down 15 min down, nice lh shooting star with little/no lower wick. Tried to exit at +19 when move below even number failed. Jumped up quickly and I couldn't get out, thought it was going again and that failed. Out at BE.

[SunTrader]

Originally Posted by Snow Dog »

......... A good trader said to me that the first retracement is the best trade, ie the first higher low/lower high............

I can tell when it is the first HL or LH 100% of the time - in hindsight.

[Snow Dog]

Have a look at both charts posted, if you trade with mt4 you'll know the buy and sell lines are where I've entered the trades, so there's no 'hindsight' about it. There may be the odd (repeat odd) trade where I forget to take a pic when I'm in the trade. By then I trust I'll have built up some cred.

On another point are you normally so distrustful of new posters here? Not a very nice welcome.

[Snow Dog]

Originally Posted by SunTrader »

I can tell when it is the first HL or LH 100% of the time - in hindsight.

If there is a 100% set up that I didn't take I'll make a post and say why.

For example 100% system trade 1hr down 15 min down but I didn't take this entry just above the RN as I thought the 20 odd pip set up candle was a little too large.

I see from your profile that you are at tradestation, as mentioned above mt4 is kind enough to place buy and sell on every chart so you'll know where an entry is made.

Please either contribute constructively or take your comments elsewhere.

[Snow Dog]

Got this hl after 15 min pos close, reject of Y's high. Out +28 when move up hesitated.

[Snow Dog]

We had ej set up and missed this 100% system gu buy.
1hr up 15 min up, nice 5 min hl and little/no upper wick on set up candle.