[torero]

Sister! You really got it going on!!! Watching your chart and post is a pure pleasure, shows me how good you are with sitting and watching! Gonna be there someday!

[Soultrader]

It certainly has been a great learning experience watching your charts Texxas. Its got me more intrigued to start learning Forex on a serious level.

[Anna-Maria]

Thank you for your kind comments, they’re much appreciated!

I think by now, you will have noticed the common denominator in the vast majority of these trades? You’ll certainly have observed that most of my entries revolve around breakouts in one form or another.

This isn’t the only set-up we execute by any means – but it does form the basis of my/our activity on these instruments. However, like any set-up, to offer a decent potential return v/s stake-risk deployed, it has to include rigid parameters. And in the instance of triggering a trade via a pullback opportunity, there has to be a confirmation of “intent�

That intent reveals itself to me by means of a ‘test or pullback’. If price fails to retrace or re-test a breakout level, then it goes without my/our money. Simple as that. No head scratching, stressing out about losing out on a move, worrying bout whether it’s faking or teasing etc etc…..if it breaks, it pulls back offering an opportunity to climb on – or it doesn’t receive our funds.

Experience tells us there are plenty of (other) opp’s on other instruments or candidates which adhere to our strict rules, rather than risk our entry money on half assed trades.

These (currency) markets are fickle enough at the best of times, without us playing tag with their silly games.

I don’t mind which timeframe I witness the pullback from. 5m thru 60m are the most sensible frames obviously, but the Daily/240m template frames will offer the clues….it’s then a case of drilling down to focus on the level which stirs our interest to trigger the entry/compound etc.

Nothing complicated - no complex indicator signals to observe, no if’s or but’s….just pure, plain price activity signals. It either breaks the line & fakes out the weak hands before continuing on (which is where we climb on) or it breaks, pulls back & ranges.

We then have a choice: either revert to a range trading strat or stand aside.

Sooner or later, due to the massive volume participation which FX attracts, price will break out & trend. Ok, the trend might only shunt for a couple cents or so, other times it will shift pretty quickly for a 4-5c run…..but that’s where the trade management will determine how much of a move we book.

There are plenty of opportunities across the majors every week to keep you busy, as long as you possess a strong, basic & consistant method/plan of taking advantage of these moves.

That’s the real key!! Plan the trades & trade the plans!

[torero]

I know the trend is the best way to make money but there are traders in futures who trade ranges. Is it sensible to trade ranges in forex?

[Anna-Maria]

Contrary to popular belief, currencies spend a good part of their life in ranging environments.

I guess it depends on how you determine (& trade) your ranges? Sure, the lower timeframes regularly throw up very tradeable ranges, but a quick mosey out into the larger frame references will clearly highlight the primary range(s) where applicable.

One persons trend is another one's range

I guess you're maybe referring to tighter range boundaries on the Index Futures? I can't really compare the 2 with any degree of accuracy, because I don't trade them.

But ranges not only appear on these instruments with increasing regularity, they're also very tradeable!

[Anna-Maria]

To be honest, you'll unearth more traditional & better behaved ranging candidates on the crosses than you will via the majors.

If you scroll back thru your favored timeframes on a few of the popular crosses, you'll see what I mean.

The 2 examples below offer a reasonable selection of the types of behaviour you'll witness. A case of horses for courses.

[cowpip]

Good day, Texxas! (Yep, I am who you think I am.)

Awesome trading! You continue to amaze me. And as always, your analyses (just like your brothers) are bang on!

There is a bunch of whooplah spewing out of some of the analysts out there that cable may see another one of its seasonal bull runs during December. HSBC did a great research article a while back trying to figure out why cable sometimes runs during December. They cautioned that because the market is now aware of this behavior, the run may be subdued this (and subsequent) year(s), or may be observed during November or January instead.

You've been in this game far longer than I have. Have you noticed this behavior? And if so, has it become less pronounced in recent years?

Keep up the great work!

- Cowpip

[Anna-Maria]

Howdy Cary

You got your spies out buddy? LOL.

I can't recall now who it was, but one of the research houses compiled a similar study back in late 2004, attempting much the same kinda stats. I don't think they drew any conclusive results on it though.

Personally, I don't think it's very worthwhile spinning back much beyond 2000 to guage this type of behaviour. The make-up of the markets have changed enormously since then, due to a number of reasons (main one being the much hyped attraction over recent times within the retail community).

But I guess 2000 thru 2003 were the better end of year performance sprints for the Cable of late. They were pretty decent trading periods as I recall. The 90's weren't anything too special, and as you say - there doesn't appear any concrete reasonings for it.

Obviously, a whole heap of book balancing takes place around end of 4th Quarter & 1st Quarter tends to inject a fair pace of volatility for obvious reasons, so I guess it's merely a case of 'common sense' if the Cable is kicking in a 'trending phase'? which is certainly was in 2002/03.

All's I'm bothered about is that volatility exists. I'm not too choosy what direction it takes

I'll leave all the debating to those who have the time to study it December is the month to crank up the credit card a/c - the more $$'s which hit the a/c, the more Jimmy Choo's I can snaffle LOL.