[throughthemud]

I trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD using elliott wave analysis. I was wondering who else out here is doing the same thing. Maybe we can compare notes and counts to help keep each other honest.

Right now my euro analysis puts us at
Wave (v) of 5 of (C) ended at 1700 GMT
or
Wave i of (v) of 5 of (C)

It is satisfactory as all of (v) of 5 because it is .618 x (i) and I count 5 subdivisions.
I'm currently positioned short until my wave count is broken.

[throughthemud]

Turns out that was wave i. I was able to get out of the trade with a small profit after it was just an extended wave. There was another very clear wave iii that followed and a somewhat unclear but I think valid wave v.

Wave (i) was 177 pips and (v) has been 134 pips or 75% of wave (i). This is close enough for me to believe it's over. A drop below 1.4500 on EUR/USD will confirm this.

If that has happened that would be the end of wave 5 of (C) and the end of primary wave 2 and that means the dollar will shoot back up even higher than it was before.

I am again positioned short in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and I've gained enough pips that I put my stops in at a profit. Since the wave count is not quite clear this could still be wave ii of (v).

[thalestrader]

Hi there,

Does it make any sense to discuss EW counts and not include an annotated chart displaying the wave count?

Best Wishes,

Thales

[throughthemud]

perhaps not. i just figured anyone with sufficient knowledge of elliott waves would be able to see what i'm talking about as long as they are also following the same pair. i will include some charts from here on out.

looking at the newest developments 2:22 GMT Monday it appears wave (v) did end and now we're working on downside. looking for confirmation on EUR/USD below 1.4500 and on GBP/USD below 1.6453

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by throughthemud »

perhaps not. i just figured anyone with sufficient knowledge of elliott waves would be able to see what i'm talking about as long as they are also following the same pair.

You would be correct assuming that your count is correct and that all others will be in agreement. I'm not saying that your count is right or wrong, only that there is no basis for discussing different counts and determining valid and probable counts from less valid or less probable without knowing how one has identified each particular swing.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

I am looking forward to seeing your charts and your counts.

Thank you,

Thales

[throughthemud]

we have nonconfirmation on the euro when it went past 1.4634 but i'm still holding out hope until the dollar breaks the count which will be soon anyway if it's going to happen. i'm still quite profitable because of the pound play.

the euro made a nonconfirmation of Primary 1 way back on july 15th 2008. i'm hoping this is equivalent to that because the dollar count is clear.

[throughthemud]

USD index 9/14 at about 1730 GMT

btw my labels are shown as
intermediate degree (1)(2)(3)
minor 1 2 3
minute (i) (ii) (iii)
minuette i ii iii