[throughthemud]

the last counts I posted are still the ones I'm going with but with either count I expect downside from here. if it is very strong it will be my alternate count and I will try to post targets later

[throughthemud]

yesterdays forecast for downside was a mistake as I somehow failed to realize that the C wave had not yet completed 5 waves (all c waves are 5 wave movements) so using elliott wave analysis the correction could not have been completed.

[throughthemud]

you can look back at my last gbp/usd chart for reference but it appears wave (4) of 3 is close to finished and I'm still looking at the same targets for the end of wave 3.

[thalestrader]

What happened?

Best Wishes,

Thales

[VILLAFILLER]

Hi - you guys still watching this?

I'm a new convert to Elliott and have limited myself to EUR/USD so far.

I'd be interested to hear what you have to say about a count on 4H.

I thought I had a triangle forming (attached), so expected a continuation break on the upside after e - it seemed to post a throw-under to the support at 14800 (therefore not a valid triangle?).

Following this EUR rallied to a new short-term high - I read this as a wave 1 - now following this (attached 2) and would appreciate your count.

Thanks,

VR

[throughthemud]

I've taken on more responsibility outside trading markets and the decreased leverage means forex is no longer my main source of income. I'm trading on a little longer time frame then before. I'm going to try to start posting again but I think the markets are clearing up now so it won't be as difficult to see what's coming next anyway. Here's one chart that is food for thought.

[throughthemud]

Hi VR,
Your analysis is good. I was watching the same thing. The throw over/throw under is actually more common than not for a triangle's e wave. This turned out to be part of a more complex pattern so I hope you didn't get killed expecting that 5th wave you were hoping for. I always play 4th and 5th waves very cautiously.

[throughthemud]

The USD has made a movement that can be counted as 5 waves and therefore complete for a few days but I don't believe the movement is actually complete. If you look at my chart of the euro the movement since wave 1 down has only been about 1.618 times wave 1. That should be the minimum movement for wave 3. Also this movement has not been nearly as long as the wave 1 for primary wave 1 down. I've been short on this since the beginning of this wave but I won't be adding anymore until it becomes more clear whether this is the end of 1 or just wave 3 or 4.