[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by throughthemud »

I created a new thread "Trading GBP/USD with Elliott Waves and RSI" to demonstrate what I was discussing earlier. Please take a look.

Why not keep it all under one thread?

I do appreciate your willing ness to post your counts as price action unfolds rather than after the fact. EW analysis often looks so clear after the fact. It sems much more difficult in real time. I hope you continue contributing. You have a good thread started here - run with it rather than splitting off into multiple threads.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[throughthemud]

Thanks for the feedback. I wanted to split that off into another thread so that newcomers won't get lost in this thread as it becomes several pages long. I just recently joined this forum and find it hard to get into the discussion of long standing threads. I'll try to keep most of it in this thread though. EW analysis is difficult in real time but the more you do it the better you get so posting my real time analysis here is helping me out too especially since I can't go back and lie to myself that I was right all along.

btw new EUR/USD target ~1.4767 ( wave v equality with wave i )

[throughthemud]

i'm looking at immediate downside in the GBP/USD. if the bottom of the triangle is breached. I will look for even more downside otherwise continue to look for more highs

[throughthemud]

The downside on GBP/USD is being realized and I wanted to explain my reason for the previous forecast. My two top wave counts show a (b) wave triangle as in the previous chart or a series of 1st and 2nd waves. That means the movement was either wave (c) or wave i of (iii). In either case it would have been five waves which had just completed when I posted that statement.

Now for the immediate future beyond what I stated in my previous post.

If the drop is in 5 waves and ends near or below its origin I will not buy it. I will wait for a 3 wave bullish movement and then sell sell sell! because that will signal the start of a much largest bearish movement.

On the other hand if the bearish movement is only 3 waves it's time to buy buy buy! and expect much stronger uptrend to above 1.6600.

I'm not willing to switch to bearishness yet on the EUR/USD but the waves can be counted as complete and if it is then we can expect a MAJOR change in trend on the primary scale! Not a good time to be bullish unless you're watching it carefully!!!

[throughthemud]

I'm having trouble with the idea that the euro would end it's uptrend where it's at now because it would be right at the tip of wave (A). Equality (A) = (C) (a wave principle guideline) would be at about 1.4846. Also on the monthly chart of EUR/USD RSI-7 is about 67.78 which is not quite oversold but it's getting close. There is also a lot of upper shadows for resistance at around that level. I did more analysis on the intermediate scale to come up with this alternate count that could take us higher. By this count we are in wave v of an extended wave (iii) so we'll top soon, drop to roughly 1.4500 and then make one final push to the top. This would also give the GBP/USD time to make a new high that I've been thinking about but didn't think was possible. In any case I'll keep posting on shorter term plays and watch as things develop.

[throughthemud]

Quick post. I just went long on the GBP. I don't feel comfortable with a long play on EUR so I'll wait for it to go up a bit and then short it. I went long on the pound since the current correction looks to be ending and wave c = 0.618 * wave a. I'll add a chart to show what I'm talking about later.

[throughthemud]

it's quite obvious the EUR and GBP are in for some immediate gains but I'm still half asleep so I'll get back with charts later

[throughthemud]

It appears we are just beginning wave v of a diagonal triangle (in the euro)! This means the end is very near. Last night my price target of 1.4767 was hit. My count shows that to be the top of wave iii of the diagonal triangle. My previous price target of 1.4846 should be the end of the entire movement. I'm holding long and will short at that point. This looks like the major turnaround I was talking about before!