[Anna-Maria]

carter:

I keep a detailed spreadsheet of the main instrument(s) I predominantly trade. Those being Euro & Cable.

Basically, I record the daily Open-High-Low & percentage change bias on these babies, & categorize them into "normal" & excess range parameters.

Excluding the abnormal range extremes, both these pairs spend the majority of their lives clipping between those 2 aforementioned % barriers.

so, I calc the 35 & 50% long/short measure away from the prev day's close & use those 4 levels (2 resist & 2 support measures) as my next day's observation points.

If it's likely to be a Big day, one or either side of those s&r levels will get taken out during the early to mid London shift.

If range play's are the order of the day, those levels will generally dictate the flow.

if they happen to confluence a prev swing high-low or key Fib number, all the better - but I prefer to use actual price range behaviour rather than an arbitrary math calc, which Pivots are essentially derived from.

hope that helps explain.

[Soultrader]

Veryyy interesting texxas. The 35% and 50% points basically act as S1,S2,R1,R2 pivots. So you would play them as if a pivot based trader would trade pivots?

The way you categorize them makes perfect sense. I have studied methods kind of similar in which fib ratios are applied to the high/low of the session to predict the following days range (for futures.... not my method). Very interesting indeed....

[Anna-Maria]

Hi Soultrader

yeah, basically they're my initial support/resistance guides - with the NY close being the fulcrum. They work & react best when price is cosseted inside a range zone.

Their effectiveness is diluted a tad when price breaks out & prints consecutive "Big Day's" - which it often does on the majors when they go on a run. But then, each trading behavioural shift has to be traded with very differing tools anyhow! Soon as you get a heads up as to which phase we're entering, it's merely a case of swapping toolboxes

Fib ratio's are a common them for sure, & on that score I really like the 78.6% number!!

If you like your Fib barriers, keep an eye on that calc.....it's led to 2x2c pay-day's on Cable with relative ease the past six weeks (on the 60 & 240m frames).

the 78.6 can be even be played on the 5m (not usually a timeframe I'd use ANY speficic technical observations on) pretty consistantly.

I hasten to point out: these tools & their observations are taken from the FX instruments, how they pan out on other instrument classes is unbeknown to me as I rarely trade outside this arena.

[Soultrader]

Hello texxas,

Thank you for the input I currently do not trade currencies but have been interested for quite some time. I just recently started studying a bit about them ( I trade eminis mainly). In the index futures, the S3 and R3 pivots are often a favorite pivot for fades by professionals. This is because price tends to stay within these two pivots 80%+ of the time.

Im curious to see if there are pivots or fib ratios that are usually faded by the professionals. You mentioned the 78.6% being a key fib number in the FX instruments. Do you think prices tend to stay within certain fib extension ratios such as 161.8% above/below the previous days high/low?

Im personally not too crazy about fibs... more into market profile and pivots. But just a little curious to see how the FX markets work

[Anna-Maria]

I used to mark them religiously a few years back & used the 38 & 62% (on the 240m+ frames) as either paring or compound levels, according to the flow of the trend.

But since the influx of more & more retailers into the fray, specially during the past 3 or 4 yrs, the majors have changed their behaviour around the Big Fib levels. Well, certainly the way I traded them.

I don't really pay them too much mind, other than when they marry a hard s&r confluence zone. Like I said, the 78.6 is a favored observation if it happens to hit on a Round Number/prev swing point.

I focus on the mid-term momentum plays quite a bit these day's, utilizing the 240-5m combo. That Fib point often gets me in with decent r/r - or gets me out at a keen pare level.

I'll haul up a couple attachments to better explain the reasonings. It's merely something I've gotten used to consulting on the Euro/Cable....like most things, it can be eyeballed pretty easily once you hone certain elements down to a consistant play.

I don't tend to complicate matters when executing via the technicals. I leave all the mumbo jumbo systems baloney to the grail chasers!! Let them chase their tails all over the park - I'd rather clip the price bars as & when they show me a favored set-up

[Anna-Maria]

Here are the 2 attachments I referred to in prev post:

1st snag is a 240m run of the higher low back off the Daily ceiling kick @ c9050

2nd from the 60m run back from a second attempt to attack the months highs above 1.91 - the 78.6 forming a higher low at a pretty decent Big Number support.

[Anna-Maria]

Here's one such example currently playing out on the micro timeframe (5m).

I'll certainly be eyeballing this present scenario as Tokyo wakes up later. Price is bobbing along in a pretty crucial zone up here, & if the Cable Bulls are intent on keeping hold of the rope, they'll wanna contain this push to new yearly highs.

Plenty of space below to pick it back up should Friday's close continue a southbound tack, with 9050 & 8970 likely support camps to re-engage longs - see if the UK PPI can exert a little influence.

Just thought I'd sling this up, as it appeared on the radar anyway

[torero]

Excellent charts, tex.

I'm a newbie in forex so I have never made a big deal with different openings in London, Tokyo and New York. Wanted to get your insight on how they relate to each other in influencing prices. Do these openings counter-act each other as new opening begin?