02-14-2009, 04:43 AM
|
#33 |
Join Date: May 2007 Location: Tonbridge Thanks: 0
Thanked 32 Times in 21 Posts
| Re: I Want Volume (spot Vs Futures) The currency futures have a layer of bids and offers stacked which are arbitraged back to cash via the Block Trade and the EFP (Exchange Futures for Physical) facilities. Many retail accounts don't seem to understand this factor and believe that the volume is the be all end all. By way of explanation I will give an example. the market is say 1.2888-1.2889 in a 16 x 4 market. someone sells 22 lots all filled (due to a submarine bid) at 1.2888. the next quote is 1.2887 - 1.2889 in a 4 x 9 market. 1 lot trades down into the bid at 1.2889 and seemingly the market then shoots up to 1.2893-1.2894. The volume watcher would have seen volume come into the left hand side selling but the price action is now higher. this reflects the cash market where say 1.2893 is given and 1.2899 is then paid. What I find useful is not the volume per see but the pattern from the tic volume histogram that in MP terms I can associate with certain types of behavior. I agree with previous tail and dog comments. The only time knowing volume in FX is going to give you an edge is when you are a spot jockey and see the customer flow particular the orders coming from SAFE the Chinese vehicle or the Red Man (who is in fact a lady) the chief FX trader for the Russian Central Bank that is probably the worlds largest customers right now. |
| |