[Flojomojo]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

If you want something that really works, paint your Esc key with red fingernail polish.....

...I'll get a Bloomberg keyboard. The Esc key is already red and it comes with some more fancy colors!

[BlowFish]

I think you might be judging those that hang out here rather harshly and with a broad brush. It's hardly difficult to test Granger causality with things like Matlab and R having inbuilt functions for such techniques, I'd go as far as saying its trivial.

It seems that there several retail traders that post here that have the smarts, gumption and tools to do such work. However I am not sure any trade spot FX (probablly too smart) unlikely they would devote time to prove or disprove a theory that would not have any benefit to thier own trading. Actually seems to me the best one could hope to do would be disprove the theory as there might be a third (unknown) process driving both series and that's one of a couple of places where Granger breaks down (based on my admittedly limited understanding).

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

If you want something that really works, paint your Esc key with red fingernail polish.....

I did pay around using a game pad for scalping many years ago (A buy B sell). Yes, I was young and foolish. I am pleased to say that I am now old and foolish.

[cowpip]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Actually seems to me the best one could hope to do would be disprove the theory as there might be a third (unknown) process driving both series and that's one of a couple of places where Granger breaks down (based on my admittedly limited understanding).

A third process... oh yes... undoubtably there is. Take your pick: seismic events, the rate of meteor falls, sunspot counts, confirmed werewolf sightings, and the rates of humping elephants. One of those will surely be correlated.

[atto]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

I think you might be judging those that hang out here rather harshly and with a broad brush.

My intent was not to be harsh, apologies for coming across like that.

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by cowpip »

A third process... oh yes... undoubtably there is. Take your pick: seismic events, the rate of meteor falls, sunspot counts, confirmed werewolf sightings, and the rates of humping elephants. One of those will surely be correlated.

And of course there is GJ closing out positions for holiday cash. I would guess planetary alignment is not highly correlated as there is no central exchange for FX and hence not a single location to calculate aspects from.

Originally Posted by atto »

My intent was not to be harsh, apologies for coming across like that.

Hehe I am thick skinned and not one of the industrious anyway. There are one or two here that are pretty rigorous and a bit more 'quantitative'.

[cowpip]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

And of course there is GJ closing out positions for holiday cash. I would guess planetary alignment is not highly correlated as there is no central exchange for FX and hence not a single location to calculate aspects from.

Heh heh... yip.

I think this topic has been exhausted. Thanks GammaJammer for your persistence and clarity.

[GammaJammer]

Agree - been done to death a bit (and I admit towards the end I was getting bored and fractious meself). Prior to that, hope I added a few useful insights.

And thanks Blowfish for your comments on Granger causality - interesting. And you're right - the people who are comfortable working with something like R or Matlab probably aren't mucking about in spot FX My point was a more general one though that the tools to progress the debate a little DO exists, and they would at least be a welcome breath of fresh air and a change from all the conjecture.

Good afternoon / evening all.

GJ