[Sledge]

Art-
WOW, what a post! THANK YOU! That is an unbelievably in-depth answer to my question!

So in essence, folks in your boat really are watching Price Action at certain predetermined S&R levels and the reaction to said price action in say a 25-30 pip range (give or take dependant upon the circumstances) Yes?

Thank you sir!
Sledge

[Art Krantz]

Originally Posted by Sledge »

So in essence, folks in your boat really are watching Price Action at certain predetermined S&R levels and the reaction to said price action in say a 25-30 pip range (give or take dependant upon the circumstances) Yes?

You bet we are. Why would be any different to anyone else? We might have a different view of the landscape to you, but it doesn't necessarily make our templates right & yours wrong. We just got different aims & objectives to you is all.

Listen, a level is a level is a level. I see 152.0 thru 52.80 on my long range grid as a potential high value ticket north for an aggressive compound trip. I also view the southbound ticket off the 160.0 thru 61.50 ceiling channel as either a profit booking-encashment opportunity and/or a flip short play.

But the level or zone is also an opportunity for the fast money to hustle their $$'s too. If you're a candle watcher, a vsa slave, a pattern junkie or an indicator druggie you got a previous zone of activity which has resulted in some sort of reactionary play, yeah?

Doesn't really matter (to all extents) how the level is engaged or by what means, just that the savvy players recognize the fact it's played ball before & is maybe worth zooming in on your radar for a closer look. The various methods one chooses to engineer the entry & trade management can then be cranked up & considered.

It might not offer you sufficient risk to climb aboard. Who knows, but I'd much rather be eyeballing & working out my (risk) odds from a level such as this than getting mired & tangled up in no-mans land.

Do you really wanna run your race with all the uninformed, clueless gamblers, chasing their tails inside an obvious action zone? I don't think so. That's where the patience & discipline part of the deal enters the equasion.

I'll try offer an example here of what I mean. I've used the candle as my choice this time as it appears a favorite of folks here. The lower pitch viewed from both the 240 & 15 offer similar trigger alarms, yeah?

Like I say, if you can pitch your odds (risk) to a worthwhile calc & you got upside/downside elbow room, then you're good to trot. How you manage the gig & what kind of targets (if that's the way you operate) you slug for are obviously down to you.

Ok, I come in early today to get some work done, I best get to it.

[Sledge]

Art-
I'm friggin speachless- and I talk A LOT!

The only thing I can comment after offering you extreme thanks is one line in your post:
"Why would we be any different to anyone else?"

The funny thing is- there are a lot of folks who don't get it and don't try to (i.e. the gamblers you spoke of) Some of the folks who DO attempt to understand how the markets work- up until some of these posts always thought this may be true- but never had someone who captain's an Oil Tanker on a daily basis- confirm it.

You just took this from an educated guess or a theory to "Yup, there it is, it was said by someone who really knows what the heck goes on- from someone who sits the trenches daily!"

Who knew this thread would lead to such wonderful and open discussions that would sharpen my trading skills like a Ginsu!
I want to publicly Thank Torero for making one simple observation that has lead us to where we are 7 pages later: "Busy Day Tomorrow" Busy Indeed!

Thank you Art, I know I'm open to more education and am MOST appreciative!
Sledge

[torero]

Yeah I used to use patterns but I find that S/R play out better than pattern for currencies. Patterns still make sense in stocks and eminis (contrasts lie in 24-hr vs market hours instruments?). If you go back to some of Anna-Marie's (trader formerly known as Texx ... or Prince...ss --couldn't help myself. hee hee), she uses 78% fibonacci as are of possible reversal, that's nugget in itself.

I'm glad you found the thread useful but the crux of the work comes from folks AK, AM, and Andre and cowpip too.

[Anna-Maria]

Arty would be the first to tell you that we’re certainly not educators Sledge.

What we do wouldn’t fill a class or seminar for longer than 30 minutes

There are folks in this industry wired tighter into that box than the likes of us.

The basis of what we do isn’t very complicated to fathom at all, & definitely not rocket science. Sure, we might have access to information streams which the average retailer doesn’t, but that in no way guarantees we’ll stay ahead of the curve.

It's nice to have, but not particularly essential to generating consistant profits.

We specialize in a small chunk of a market & merely do the same thing over & over, based upon our collective knowledge & experience.

Everyone here are singing from the same hymn sheet where price action is concerned however.

It's a direct result & consequence of trader psychology Get a handle on that & you can understand better how these key levels are orchestrated by the folks who really push this FX gig up & down the ladder.

We indentify levels & area’s on the map where we know certain groups of players are likely to become active. It’s not difficult to locate these levels, the footprints are big enough to spot.

Once you find the levels & they hold up to inspection, you require a set of tools to get to work on them.

They’re either reversal tools or continuation tools.

Like he said in an earlier post; concentrate, focus & begin to observe carefully the behaviour of price action as it approaches, & backs away from these levels. That will tell you a whole lot about the psychology of the players who are working there.

Once we’ve managed to average or job into a core position, we can then get to work & begin compounding it from a position of strength (value).

But you absolutely got to possess a plan.

You have to know where you’re looking to engage & why. You must have an objective (short or mid term, whatever your preference) & you definitely need to know where the next level of potential conflict (for you) is at, so you can prepare for an each-way option.

As long as you know where price has come from & where it’s likely destination lies (both for you & against you), then you got options. All you got to decide then is whether the level you intend executing from fits your risk profile & offers sufficient value for your stake money.

Pick up where Arty left off with a couple more charts, & you can easily see the kind of road map we follow & where we adjudge the likely reaction levels.

No-one ever knows for sure how price is going to interact with a level when they pull the trigger, but there are 3 things we’re absolutely certain of when stepping up:

1) Where we’re going to bail if the trade begins to get washed out.

2) Where & why we’re going to aggressively add (compound) more fuel to the trade when it does start to rip.

3) When we’re going to peel off or fully encash based on our trusty old reversal or exhaustion signals.

They’re the same reasons & set-ups we’ve always used & will continue to use because they’re based around the psychology of market participants. And that is what drives order flow every second of every day.


ps: I see you're still observing that cool 78.6% assistor then torero good on ya!

another trusty old friend out there in the theatre of war which is the markets

[Sledge]

Anna-
Oh you have no idea the education you folks are providing. To you and the crew, this is probably pretty "common sense stuff" because by now it is all second nature with your background. Just as it is second nature to me to build you a stunning trade show display and pull off a profitable show (my background and consulting business) For me that is easy- but for my clients- it isn't (that is why I get to be paid to teach them)

For your enlightemnent of us, I am truly grateful!
Sledge

[Anna-Maria]

Well, if it helps or assists in developing a couple more idea's to add to your pot then I guess it's worthwhile

There's 3 charts missing from my last post which should have been included. I guess the server maintenance unseated them?!

Anyhow, I'll try slinging them up again in here as I'm unable to edit that prev post.

Just offers a taste of how we view the playing field & assess potential forward issues. All simple, common sense stuff really.

[Sledge]

Originally Posted by Anna-Maria »

3) When we’re going to peel off or fully encash based on our trusty old reversal or exhaustion signals.

Anna-
I had another thought after I re-read your post. Andre had stated that he and company don't use volume to spot exhaustion (or anythng else for that matter.) Do you then focus soley on the formation of the bar or bars in the, for lack of a better term- S&R neighborhood?

The most common that come to mind would be:
1. Bars with long top "wicks" and close in the middle or low
2. Narrow spread bars either at top of a trend or bottom (maybe you call this at your S&R neighborhood)
3. Bars with long "tails" that close in the middle or high of the bar

Any others I may have forgotten?

I'm working to look at the "horizon" as Andre pointed out and not focus on say one particular bar- but as you know you tend to see a cluster of bars in a sideways pattern in these S&R zones. So I am working on clarifying in say a 5 bar cluster what that cluster tells me. I think the answer is that you just have to know how to read bars and what they are specifically telling you, as well as when you get 5 bars together- what do they COLLECTIVELY tell you. Correct?

Much Thanks- can I take your "non-30 minute seminar" sometime ;-)
Sledge