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Old 06-12-2013, 09:20 AM   #1

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INR USD Discussion

Hi Folks,

This thread is being created to discuss the direction of INR - USD Exchange Rate. IMO many of us are trading INR:USD. From trading point of view, how should we take a call on INR:USD rate.

In the recent past, we have seen that Indian Rupee (INR) is losing its value against USD. The partially convertible rupee closed at 57.79 per dollar, 1 per cent stronger compared with 58.39 on Tuesday. It hit a record low of 58.98 on Tuesday.

Where can we expect INR:USD Rate 1 or 2 months down the line ?????
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Old 06-15-2013, 12:59 AM   #2

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Re: INR USD Discussion

I recently came to know that at least five top currency traders and economists say the probability of the rupee will fall to 60 to the US dollar is higher than it will move towards 50 with record foreign fund flows of the last eight months tapering off. This is largely on account of the boost in sentiment following a rash of reforms failing to translate into real business activity.
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Old 06-16-2013, 11:26 PM   #3

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Re: INR USD Discussion

hey buddy,
I do trade USDINR but i do not follow any fundamentals and opinions are really only opinions, so there is no point in what people are saying, it can go any were. If you rally want to make money follow the price and nothing else.


trade well
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Old 06-18-2013, 09:31 AM   #4

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Re: INR USD Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by saak »
hey buddy,
I do trade USDINR but i do not follow any fundamentals and opinions are really only opinions, so there is no point in what people are saying, it can go any were. If you rally want to make money follow the price and nothing else.


trade well
Hey Saak,

I recently came to know that Indian Finance Minister have taken actions to strengthen the currency. I believe INR is gonna to be appreciate against USD and it might reach to 55 in couple of months down the line.
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Old 06-18-2013, 09:58 AM   #5

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Re: INR USD Discussion - Fundamental view on INR USD

We know that the rupee is at a record low, our natural inclination is to assume that the rupee is a very weak currency. But, I am gonna to explain that this is misleading. Lets see why this is misleading.

In the long term, currency values reflect relative inflation. The more inflation a country has the weaker its currency becomes. Based on this logic, what should we expect to happen to the value of the rupee against the dollar over time?

Over the last 10 years, US inflation has averaged around 2%, while Indian inflation has averaged 8%. This means that every year, the rupee's value, in purchasing power terms, is lower by 6% relative to the US dollar. So, we expect that the rupee should depreciate against the dollar by an average of 6% per year solely due to inflation.

Given this metric, we can compare actual currency performance to what is expected purely due to inflation. Over the last 10 years, taking into account the rupee's recent decline, the rupee has fallen by a little less than 30% against the dollar. This translates into an average depreciation of 3% per year and this is significantly less than what is implied by the difference in inflation rates between India and the US.

It means that in real terms, the rupee has become more valuable against the dollar in the last decade. This is due to strong economic performance and high growth rates for most of the decade.
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Old 06-26-2013, 12:24 AM   #6

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Re: INR USD Discussion

I guess very few TL members follow or trade in INR USD Currency. This thread is created to get the TL members view on the INR USD Currency from both ling term and short term (trading) point of view.

Anyone out there for INR USD ????
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Old 06-26-2013, 02:42 AM   #7

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Re: INR USD Discussion

Hey, I don't think many trade INR USD, however you can maybe tell us the benefits of trading INR USD?

And tips?

Which broker do you use?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry1234 »
I guess very few TL members follow or trade in INR USD Currency. This thread is created to get the TL members view on the INR USD Currency from both ling term and short term (trading) point of view.

Anyone out there for INR USD ????
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Old 07-02-2013, 01:29 AM   #8

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Re: INR USD Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by tradeshah »
Hey, I don't think many trade INR USD, however you can maybe tell us the benefits of trading INR USD?

And tips?

Which broker do you use?
Hello Tradeshah,

I do not trade in INR / USD. I am a Finance Consultant and provide tips to export oriented companies on how to deal with their foreign exchange risk and also helps them in formulating their foreign exchange hedging strategies.
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