[slick60]

I am new to these forums and cannot find a thread dealing with following the euro in forex in a trading way.
I would like to share some ideas and charts with this topic. I have a background like a lot of you here of being a simple retail trader in search of that ever elusive win win win ratio that never looks back. I know at this point in my trading career that it only takes money - and I know this will get the hoots and hollers from a number of participants in these forums. However to those who profess to manage large sums of somebody else' money I would be interested to know at what percentage your employer expects you to achieve and start rewarding you with performance bonuses.
Watching fiber at the moment I see it is taking away all of my thunder. I cannot type fast enough or make charts to post quick enough for this move.
A delta low is due today in my solution so weakness is expected. (Not much credibility to say that after the fact-shit-should have done this last night). It may or may not take out the 1.2666 low of a few days ago. I had (and now gone) a naked poc on my market profile chart that I wanted to point out as a potential target in this move. I will post this chart right now.

click on url http://screencast.com/t/60fChmnc

slick

[slick60]

In this thread I will show charts of how I follow the market from what I have learned over the years. Contrary to popular belief Elliott Wave does in fact work. I know a ton of you will say that it is merely subjective and that 10 EW guys in a room looking at a chart will probably give you 10 different counts. That is probably true BUT did you ever stop to think that maybe perhaps one of those guys is right and the naysayers are the other 9?
The Elliott Wave Theorist with my EW hero Robert Prechter was really good at one time and now like so many people/businesses out there hires people to do the work whom I really think come from the other 9. Too bad, it is all about the money and getting those subscriptions out there. Call it one way forever and YES INDEED you eventually will be right and jump on that opportunity to get on CNBC or whatever to blow your horn and sell your wares. Damn I wish there were just some good honest people out there to look up to.
As you read this post please do not think that this is a thread about Elliott Wave. I think maybe my posts are too long and challenge the attention of a lot of traders who really just want to get on with it. Like wham bam, thank you mam and where is this market going.
I am not 100% happy with this count but it certainly is a possible. We still have several hundred pips to go south before this move is over. EW does keep extending and morphing into different patterns but there comes a point when you can discard everything that breaks the rules and then you are left with the truth.

click on url 2012-01-11_0748 - slick60's library

slick
time consuming writing these posts
P.S. to thems that wants to know - look for an intermediate to longer term low due near the end of March this year.

[slick60]

A potential [B] wave complete of an a-b-c flat 4th wave correction. I have a possible short intermediate term delta due in this low time frame. Now a quickie retrace to a possible higher high and then down to a lower low that 1.2666.
Needs to get done quickly
http://screencast.com/t/m3vs4a1b2fy8

slick

Possibility here is an extended 1st wave complete with 2 more impulse waves to follow. This move down in my opinion not on really big volume

[slick60]

Man, just killed my page
If they dump on this pair in the U.S. session they may bring it down to the channel shown on this chart

2012-01-11_0917 - slick60's library

slick

[slick60]

Here is a daily chart showing Delta points. The Intermediate cycle is in blue; the Medium term cycle is in red and there is a Medium long term cycle showing in black.
You can see where these points are "due" as I refer to them in other posts. Each cycle carries significant weight. The current channel in blue that I am showing is derived from an elliott wave count. The gray, yellow and turquoise horizontal lines are quarter point lines - information about them may be garnered from reading and studying the book shown on the chart, if you are not familiar with it yet. I have also noted what price action has been in the recent past on and after FOMC days.
There is a lot of information on this chart and shows what I am seeing together with an ongoing analysis of VSA and using market profile charts.
This may or may not be of interest to anyone who may choose to read this thread.

2012-01-11_1305 - slick60's library
slick

PS - for those interested how my charts are shown, I make them using Jing from Tech Smith - a free application. Google it. I think it is neat

[slick60]

Jan 11, 2012. The move down from the Tuesday high 1.2792 appears to be in 3 waves. Todays move lower gave me some confirmation that in fact yesterday afternoon we were going through a period of distribution. I did manage to grab a short at 4:21am this morning at the 1.2779 level.
To me that is still a portion of a corrective move down to 1.2761 today, a slightly lower low that I was looking for. Moving back to the 1.2841 level now would complete a possible 4th wave and allow for another move lower. This has been a very hard wave structure to label with the economic climate that we are in within the EC. Time has basically run out on the downside and we should be moving north very soon. Where we are in the time cycles it would not be surprising to me to see this wave count morph into something other than a straight impulse structure down as shown in charts I am posting at present.
Be ready for surprises on the upside!

2012-01-11_1855 - slick60's library

slick60

[slick60]

Here we are Thursday morning waiting for the EC press conference to tell us that they are not going to do anything substantial with rates in the near term. This should bode well for the market showing some kind of stability? Really? It will merely be an opportunity for the market makers to take advantage of the good news I feel. Watch out should the market spike north at the news around the 8:30am EST mark.
Today we have the sluggish start continuing that I felt was coming yesterday. My first target on the upside will be the 1.2841 level for a retrace and monitor at that time. 1.2858 is a level of S & R to see what price action does if it gets there. Should we blow through that then we are into a decent retrace at this time.
Below is a snap of some action as I see it from one of my monitors.

http://screencast.com/t/UYpEiFe8Z
The look above arrow should be pointing to the "G" period high of 3:45am
Good trading folks
slick

[slick60]

Jan 12 move north looks decent. Comes into line with what I was looking for. We now have a potential 4th wave pattern complete and can project from here where a 5th wave move may go should we go south at this time.
One must always be aware the pattern can change into something else - hahaha I hear in the background - just happens to be a fact of life and not trying to cover my ass.

2012-01-12_1024 - slick60's library

http://screencast.com/t/9yyM0DOHXY

slick