[slick60]

Originally Posted by TimRacette »

Hey slick, do you use market profile exclusively on EUR/USD? I've used it on the S&P, but not the currencies.

Hi Tim
Read your profile and see we have traded the same things, ES and 6E. I traded ES exclusively for about 1 1/2 years and moved to the 6E when S & P was in the doldrums and volatility/opportunities looked better in currencies. I tried some of the same entry techniques for the 6E as I heard in the JPJ trading room and they did not work as well. MP does seem to be very good in currencies however. It really is the only TRUE barometer of price activity in forex that I can see.

slick

[slick60]

I feel we are building a plateau of distribution at present and it will only be a matter of time before the stop run below 1.2985 begins. Profile chart showing the distribution.

2012-01-24_0731 - slick60's library

slick

[slick60]

Retrace to 1.3033-34 and away she'll go south.

This is what I see or they have fooled the hell out of me!

http://screencast.com/t/Sw7rmd9D

slick

[slick60]

I have a market profile snap to show with a couple labels on same. Please note the shape "b" pattern and the end of session,as I keep them, price spike. James Dalton teaches in Markets in Profile that "late spikes are often the completion of an auction when they follow the "b" and "P" patterns". I feel there was a lot of short interest put on the books while everyone went on a buying rampage for a week. Someone took the short side of all that buying and the only way to get paid is to reverse the market. It is not only us, the little retail trader that places orders through the bid and ask market makers. Big money also uses the MM's to facilitate trade and have to keep him in the game. Subsequently Big money will allow the MM to get his ass out of hawk and get paid.
I view this pause at present to allow more distribution to take place at higher prices. We may not put in a new high above this morning but rest assured the bottom will fall out of this market when the inventory has been balanced once again.
Hope this makes sense.

2012-01-24_1003 - slick60's library

slick60

[slick60]

I am sitting here this morning with a short bias - that is not good! I should be waiting for the market to tell me where it wants to go. The better than expected German business climate gave a little opportunity for the market makers to suck in some longs and roll more of their inventory at higher levels. From yesterday's shakeout we had a grinding trend day back up to about where we started. However in the process we plotted a warning sign in the market profile - the "P" pattern - just before the end of session spike. This was perhaps a sign that the market was having a difficult time going north. The 30 pip Asian range and into the euro/London session continues to say the same. We have the FOMC minutes and rate at 12:30pm EST today. MPC to release statement in about 1/2 hour.
We moved into the next large quarter above 1.3000 couple days ago and have been having trouble getting up through the hesitation zone which is at 1.3075. Resistance resides at that level and that may be something holding back right now.
My Delta point daily cycle high is past due but we are in an up market. This is normal behavior. It tells me that once our high is in place we should move in a correction lower BUT this high will be taken out over the next few weeks.
I took a short at 1.3032 and was going to hold. Nothing says we cannot go higher in here, the narrow ranges may turn into support rather than resistance.
Profile snap shows narrow ranges and the 4am spike. AND as I take this snap the SOB goes south

2012-01-25_0428 - slick60's library

If & when we transition the hesitation zone we should make a move toward the next large quarter at 1.3250. Beneath that is where I think we will run into our corrective high in the 1.3200 area and then complete our move south.

http://screencast.com/t/EFOsKGGVxDPg

slick

[slick60]

Do we make the break south here for our correction? Here is a snap of 15 min chart with price break and fib price projections.
Also update hourly quarters chart with EW count. Note how the 1.2975 overshoot quarter put the brakes on this move south.

15 min 2012-01-25_0520 - slick60's library
hourly 2012-01-25_0521 - slick60's library

slick 60

[slick60]

Do we now have another shake out in the making? A view of market profile split at this time with the break.

2012-01-25_0526 - slick60's library

slick

[slick60]

Have a 4 hr chart here showing a wave count of 5 waves complete and now into a retrace. Ont the hourly chart I have labeled the waves (A) thru (E) as they appear to be broken down into 3's which to me is another sign that this move is corrective and not impulsive. I would like to point out that this 5 wave move is what I consider "text book" in as much as the 2nd wave was a flat and the 4th wave a zig zag satisfying the rule of alternation and the relationship of the 1st wave to the 3rd and 5th in this case. Looks good to me - has the right look.

I apologize if the numbers scattered all over the chart are confusing. I know what they mean and quickly see them or don't see them. 4 hr cycle times for highs and lows are also shown on this chart. Possible area of retrace for this move to take us down to before the completion on the upside.

2012-01-25_0550 - slick60's library

slick60