YM and how it could've been seen....

[TinGull]

I just wanted to post up a pic of the past few days' profiles because it is very telling of what was coming, and I think it could be used in the future to see how the profiles form when coming into a downward move.



Notice how the profiles were forming continuous "b" shaped profiles. What this shape is indicative of is long liquidation. Why? Simple. The fact that there is no initiative selling tails at the bottom of the profiles is showing that no new selling is coming into the market, so the longs are just letting go of positions. You can notice there is a balanced area, "b" profile, balanced profile, and then another "b" shaped profile right before we had this major move down yesterday.

One other thing to notice...value continually positioned itself lower. Every day of last week value moved lower. Thats a big signal that we're heading lower and any longs should have a TIGHT stop, or look for initiating short positions on a longer term basis.

Today we've got a P shaped profile, showing short covering. There isn't any new buying that is showing in the profile of today. And while value placement is inside of yesterday's value area, we must remember value for yesterday was larger than it's been in a long long time. Value has now been placed in the lower range of yesterday's value. I would expect to see some initiative selling once again in the coming days until we start seeing profiles that showing us new buying is coming into the picture.

[Soultrader]

Great stuff Tingull. Definitely love seeing those P Profiles after a nice decline. (although I played all shorts today on 10 trades) Unless fresh buying comes in we are likely to go lowerrrrr. Should be a active week or two.

[TinGull]

For sure, Soultrader. There wasn't fresh long term buying in the market today...and the recovery thats being touted on the money shows....Was only like 10% of yesterdays decline. Crumby attempt at a rally after that kind of corrective day. Tomorrow should see more downward movement. The decline at the end of the day was on some decent volume with YM closing at the low of value for today. I'd be surprised if we did see another significant move to the upside within the next few trading days.

[Anonymous]

Nice work, very informative. How do you view the record high volume from yesterday? Does that matter in the profiles at all?

[TinGull]

It absolutely matters with imbalanced profiles. When a profile is balanced, it hasn't as much bearing on it. With the record volume, I'd again say...feels lower.

[walterw]

Oh my lord ¡¡ you should show this profiles to Bernanke ¡¡¡ jjejeje , good stuf Tingull... love to see all this good sound analisis, not that stupid media hope hype...

[notouch]

These 500 point YM declines happen about once every 4 years. It would be interesting to look at the profiles for the last time they happened to see if we can spot any patterns and clues about where YM is going next.

[TinGull]

The patterns are showing up in the profiles themselves. Historical would be cool to see, but I think the profiles right now speak for themselves. Markets are weak, continually placing value lower. Notice how price ended higher today, but value was lower...always watch value. The most important lesson is to differentiate value from price.

[notouch]

Price ended at the lower end of the value area and looks like it may open outside of value tomorrow. This in itself I believe points to weakness.

[traderwilliam]

TG,

Nice observation and explanation