Carter, as you stated, the
POC is just another reference point that can serve as support/resistance similar to a moving average, previous day's high/low, etc. In and of itself, there is nothing magical about the
POC so I would not focus on developing a trade strategy around the
POC itself. Instead, I would focus on developing a trade strategy around market development and then using the
POC, as well as other reference points, to position my trades. Do you see the difference? I would focus on trading market development (i.e., balance areas, trends, and the transition between both) and market context (e.g., is this a retracement within a longer-term uptrend, or trending behavior within a longer-term bracket, etc), and then using the key reference points that the Market Profile helps identify (e.g.,
POC,
value area, single prints, range extension, etc.). By doing so, you would be trading based on robust, sound principles and not just a single price on a chart. Placing a trade solely because it has hit the
POC feels like a "gimmicky" trade to me. You really want to understand what the market is doing so that you can position yourself with it. The market condition should dictate your trading strategy since trading ranges and trends are traded in dramatically different ways. I use a composite market profile to determine the market condition. After evaluating market condition, I turn my focus to market structure, which I do by looking at the daily profiles of the previous 2-3 days, in general. I would then try to identify a confluence of reference points, which tend to act as more signficant support/resistance levels than a single reference point. Trading mechanically at the
POC, or any other single reference point, would not lead to profitable trading and your odds would be no better than 50/50, IMHO. In addition, I would also be careful of placing too much importance on any single price on a chart, such as the
POC, UVA, or LVA, and focus more on price regions while monitoring market internals or an indicator of your choice. This is something that took me a while to start doing. As you can probably tell, my trading strategy has been heavily influenced by the book
Mind over Markets.