ES Trading for 10/1 thru 10/5 2007

[Dogpile]

This thread is to discuss market structure and trading for the week of Oct 1 - Oct 5, 2007.

Friday potentially started a 'down auction' with a morning high put in after a reversal day on 9/25 began an 'up auction'. That said, Fridays volume distribution shows buyers interested in the 1537.00 to 1540.00 zone. It was last day of the 3rd quarter so this makes the read on this a little difficult.

Thus, we have a selling tail above 41.00 and then a 'symmetrical distribution' after the morning move down. We closed in a 'balanced' state.

We have a case of sector rotation where nasdaq stocks have been marching up while other sectors chopped around last week (XLF/XLE).

Investors Business Daily tracks 'distriubtion days' -- defined as days where the nasdaq drops -0.8% or more. Note how common these days are on the volatile nasdaq index. We have now gone 9 days without a distribution day and are due for one this week.

[Dogpile]

Links if the above links don't work:

Recent Action and Taylor Labels:
http://bp3.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/...ing+Levels.png

Nasdaq Distribution Days Marked:
http://bp2.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/...ution+days.png

[TinGull]

Overlapping/lower value for Friday and the peak volume price was below the value area for thursdays trading. Volume also increased with a fair amount of volume happening to the downside. Just hoping this week isn't sleep just waiting for the jobs number Friday.

[Dogpile]

15-min First Cross buy will set-up at some point.

very nice drive off of opening price after a down day, particularly for ER2.

[TinGull]

Yup, some crazy buying I wasn't expecting.

[darthtrader]

powerfull open.
i think i'm done reading/watching anything that would give me a directional bias. i had been looking for the breakout to go long above 1545 since thursday, then watched that MP/COT video in the DOM thread this morning and it biased me i should be looking to short at that area. enough of that, that was just stupid. be interesting to see if we start a new balance area here and previous resistance becomes support.

[darthtrader]

what kind of setups are you guys looking for here balancing around at 1548?
i'm clueless here. maybe a quick scalp short around 1546.5?. That doesn't look like it has very good risk reward though.

[TinGull]

I am always uncomfortable buying at high levels after a big rush up. Always have been and have missed moves because of it. The way I see it, after a big rush up, there's not always enough juice to push it higher for the amount I'd want to take out of it. The bullish thing is that it's consolidating at the highs, so just correcting by time instead of price. I wouldn't be suprised if price broke out to the upside for some more gains, but I'd be long, cautiously.

[Dogpile]

this is a bullish day but short-term location is tough.

significant volume has occured at 1548.25-50... implying some patient, responsive sellers at/above this level. tough to expect MORE momentum away from this level -- but that doesn't make it a good short given the theme for the day.

As I write this, market has built now 56k contracts at 48.25... This is often a significant-enough amount to mark a peak for the day...

Someday, the 15-min chart will correct and offer a buy zone.

[darthtrader]

sweet chart dogpile. actually i can't rememer now if Jerry stays out of trades when price is that close to the PVP but there is good skew but that doesn't seem to be working.
i guess this is pretty straight up open drive. to advanced location for me.