Bullish Or Bearish

[thetradingdoctor]

Markets move because traders trade. Markets are neither bullish nor bearish, rather it is the combined emotions of over six million people which leads to conditions of either bullishness or bearishness. There are permabears who are always bearish and permabulls who are always bullish. The best traders go with what the market is telling them. The best traders leave any preconceived notions about the market somewhere in the far far distance. The best traders take advantage of what they see right in front of them. This is another way of saying: Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK!

[notouch]

At the same time it's a good idea to look at the long-term charts so that you have a bias in a particular market. On the daily chart in the YM for example I'm seeing a topping formation. Just because I see that doesn't mean I'm going to trade it. The weekly charts are making me think that being long in this market is the best option. I think it's a good idea to think before you trade, not just react to whatever you see.

[walterw]

Hi Doc, and welcome ¡¡¡ hope you enjoy your time here at TL....

I think that what the doc says about thinking its sinonimous to "fantastic predictions"...

obviously we have to think before we trade, BUT.... with true technical FACTS and not our predictions without any clear technical clue... would that be it doc ? cheers Walter...

[waveslider]

Good point nopoint(?!) - also to know exactly what you are looking for before trading (patterns/threshholds/etc.). Never good to change the plan midstream.
Like you said, when you have a bias, you know what patterns to look for, or which side to lean towards..
For example, if markets are ranging, you might want to fade the range only in direction of previous trend in anticipation of the trend re-asserting itself..

[walterw]

	Quote:	notouch
	At the same time it's a good idea to look at the long-term charts so that you have a bias in a particular market. On the daily chart in the YM for example I'm seeing a topping formation. Just because I see that doesn't mean I'm going to trade it. The weekly charts are making me think that being long in this market is the best option. I think it's a good idea to think before you trade, not just react to whatever you see.

So notouch you are a "permabul" on this moment ?

[thetradingdoctor]

Excellent comments and good to see that you are thinking! It is critical to know your time frame and to trade from that time frame. THere are so many different market opinions, many of them based on the timeframe of the chart being discussed. Scalpers work on different time frames from day or swing traders who work on different time frames from "investors." So, always know yourself, i.e. what you trade and the time frame in which you are trading. Also, if you do not have a trading strategy AND a trading plan, I strongly suggest that you work on one as soon as possible. Trading without a plan is like driving blindfold in rush hour traffic in a car with no breaks. Or worse! In any case, always plan your trade and then always trade your plan. That sounds simple ( and it really is pretty simple) but it is not at all easy.

Good remarks from all...Keep them coming!

Thanks!

Doctor Janice

[walterw]

Nice nice doc.... Having a plan absolutely... should we add that the plan has to be simple ? because having a so complex plan its similar to the mambo of not having one... cheers Walter.

[notouch]

	Quote:	walterw
	So notouch you are a "permabul" on this moment ?

I wouldn't say permabul I just have a long bias so even if I was expecting range trading I would still concentrate on taking longs at the bottom of the range and closing them at the top but not taking shorts. I think having a bias based on the long-term charts gives you an edge and keeps you out of bad trades. I could change my bias if I saw bearish developments in the weekly charts.

[walterw]

	Quote:	notouch
	I wouldn't say permabul I just have a long bias so even if I was expecting range trading I would still concentrate on taking longs at the bottom of the range and closing them at the top but not taking shorts. I think having a bias based on the long-term charts gives you an edge and keeps you out of bad trades. I could change my bias if I saw bearish developments in the weekly charts.

I perfectly understand what you mean notouch.... overall trend context... could you share some charts (maybe on a diferent thread, this is doc`s thread) of your long term trend determination bias... it would be nice to learn that... cheers Walter.

[TheBramble]

	Quote:	thetradingdoctor
	Markets move because traders trade. Markets are neither bullish nor bearish,

Traders trade because markets move. The more a market moves, the more traders trade.

And markets most definitely ARE either in a state of bullishness, bearishness or consolidation. There are strategies to use to piggy-back the current mode and to fade the current mode.

You can't not look at a chart if you're a TA bod and NOT see which mode your instrument is in. That's the whole point of TA. Which ties in perfectly with your quote of the famous 'trade what you see' mantra. But to suggest markets do not have a mode and traders move markets is erroneous. Market-Makers move markets too and they're not necessarily in trader-mode when they do that.