Trend Day Confirmation

[ckait]

How does one determine trend day , other than sitting and watching one happen? Are there clear signs or lack of signs that will let you know early enough to keep you from getting in your own way?

[dalby]

there is no "exact" answer. but here are some hints

first of all, trend days are more likely to occur after volatility has contracted. with that in mind

1) ticks almost entirely above or below zero line
2) almost all, or all sectors strong bullish or bearish
3) large gap up/down with confirmation in breadth
4) price moves in direction of trend with strong confirming volume and pulls back with lighter volume
5) no, or minimal pullbacks in price after tick extremes
6) price blows through resistance levels without even a hiccup

[brownsfan019]

That is the million dollar question. With the answer to this question, you could become a multi, multi-millionaire rather quickly. Since this is not realistic, I think it goes to show that no one knows the answer to this (and probably never will).

Some argue based on indicators, price action, etc. and I personally believe there is no answer. You don't know you are in a trend till 4:15pm EST. Until then, it's anyone's guess!

[dalby]

i totally disagree. i think this is a big part of my methodology. recognizing the character of the market, and how it is developing (trend or rotation).

nothing is 100% and nobody has a crystal ball, but i absolutely believe that you can have an edge and part of the edge comes from recognizing market development and that includes on an intraday basis

[walterw]

ckait : I like to see the overnight globex range being broken on the first 15 min with nice decent volume an see my dom crazy.... that means we are gona party today right on the begining.... if you get a lazy zzzzzzz first 15 min THEN it doesnt mean we are not gona have trending day.... it means first we are gona have a super coil.... maybe hour two hours and then at the break you want to pay attention... that was todays case... and the last is the days with news... sometimes market waits for the news in an erratic fashion and the news ( not always, depends what type of news and output of numbers ) bum trending starts.... after lots screentime this is an expontaneous reading.... but something more or less like is is how this works... cheers Walter.

[walterw]

	Quote:	brownsfan019
	That is the million dollar question. With the answer to this question, you could become a multi, multi-millionaire rather quickly. Since this is not realistic, I think it goes to show that no one knows the answer to this (and probably never will). Some argue based on indicators, price action, etc. and I personally believe there is no answer. You don't know you are in a trend till 4:15pm EST. Until then, it's anyone's guess!

Brown : there are very easy methods to know if today there are big institutional orders.... (wich is the only way market can trend) volume, speed, dynamics, internals, etc... you can clearly see when the big boys are anxios to position them selfs in the market... it takes experience... but its posible... no doubt...

[trader273]

	Quote:	dalby
	i think this is a big part of my methodology. recognizing the character of the market, and how it is developing (trend or rotation).

So what you are saying is that you know when, or relativley confident, when to implement a range bound strategy (eg any oscialltor) and when to stop that strategy and implement a trend following strategy (eg moving averages) ? If you can, more power to you. But I find that hard to believe.

[dalby]

i don't use oscillators (or lagging indicators in general) but yes i am RELATIVELY confident within the first hour if it is more of a trend or a range day. it's not rocket science, and there is not 100% accuracy. but i think its an important part of trading

[trader273]

Then I take it you watch the first hour, if its going to be a trend day you place your trade and then sometime later when the trend is over you get out(if you know when it is going to start you should know when it is going to end). If it is not going to be a trend day you do not place any trades. Why worry about the range bound days if you know when it is going to trend? You can make more money in a trend vs chop day any way.

[dalby]

i trade (futures) for income
thus i try to make money every day.

rangebound days are EMINENTLY tradeable. i love them. i trade them because they make money